When I started in 1979, the Dow was in the mid 600's and now sits at 13,113 -- a full 20 fold increase over these past 28 years. When you reflect on this simple fact, it is pretty impressive. I cannot think of any other asset class that has performed so well over that time period. Many of us, in spite of the real estate slow down, still have huge gains in our homes, but I cannot think of anyone I know that has 20-folded their home value.
The "real" bull market began on August 17, 1982 when the Dow went up 38 points on that fateful day. 38 points in 1982 when the Dow was in the 700's is equivalent to a 600-700 point up movement in today's markets. It was incredible and it began to re-focus the American investor in the United States equity markets once again. A big volume day was still under 100 million shares traded. Things have changed.
I wrote the series of the Top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years back in May and June, when times were better and investors more comfortable with smaller growth ideas. We are now in tougher times with the credit markets still in a state of disruption, which has caused consumer pessimism and the rest of the dominoes just fall right into line. Right now, it's all pretty negative.
But this is the type of environment when investors can make their best, strategic investments. Look back over these past 28 years; the market had many, many nervous times when it all looked so bleak. These times only proved to be opportunistic for savvy, patient and non-emotional investors. Think about the most important barometer for the markets--earnings growth. With earnings growth comes valuation growth--plain and simple.
Nervous times like this gives investors pause and many run into safe and liquid names. Understandable and certainly defensible. But the patient investor will notice that mid-cap and small-cap names tend to drift lower because of a "buyers strike." Capital flows out of these names and they become orphaned for a while. In my career, this is where I have witnessed the greatest professional investors really sharpen their pencils and begin to accumulate these orphans at extremely reasonable prices.
So rather than run and hide--look for the stocks that appealed to you 2-3 months ago. Chances are they are "on sale" now with the same strong fundamentals. The good companies always come back and trade at higher valuations...because remember, earnings growth ultimately drives stock performance..
Georges Yared is the CIO of Yared Investment Research and the author of " Baby Boomer Investing...Where do we go from here?"











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-10-2007 @ 8:04PM
Sheldon L said...
Very smart advice. There are very sound companies investors should be looking at that sell many staples that consumers will need even in a down economy. BRK, JNJ, PG, and many more are not going to collapse and may present tremendous opportunity. These may look like steals in the not to distant future.
9-10-2007 @ 8:24PM
Gene Dexter said...
I know plenty of people who have seen 20 times what they paid for real estate. Still, stock investment has always been on top of my list.
9-10-2007 @ 9:29PM
Neil said...
I think you areout of your tree. Some you mentioned have no more room for growth & others are going down the drain.
9-11-2007 @ 12:59AM
keshava said...
Obviously one has to look out for companies which can prove thier worth in the long term and available @ cheap prices now. Scouting them is very difficult but once this is done u can relax for the rest of ur life rather than monitering the blips everyday
- Keshava Bharadwaj
http://keshavabharadwaj.googlepages.com/