If Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, as economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect, cuts interest rates at least twice this year, will the good times start to roll? Not quite.
As BusinessWeek points out, life after the rate cut might not be a bowl of cherries. "The nightmare scenario for the Fed is that it cuts interest rates and only manages to get the markets worried about higher inflation without reviving the economy," the magazine says. "That's a recipe for stagflation."
The impact of the rate cuts on the economy won't been apparent for about six months, Edward Jones Investment Strategist Alan Skrainka told USA Today, adding that the Fed's action won't bail out homeowners who are in danger of losing their homes to foreclosure nor will it make banks more willing to lend.
But the risks of a recession are too large to ignore.
More than 60% of economists in the latest survey of the National Association of Business Economists said recession was the major risk to the economy. Fed officials, though, remain divided on what needs to be done to help the economy.
Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher recently said the economy was "weathering the storm," while Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart backed away from comments he recently made that the housing slump was having a limited impact on the economy. Federal Reserve Governor Frederic Mishkin told another audience that the Fed will act "as needed" to prevent damage to the economy caused by slumping housing prices and tightening credit.
Fed watchers who are sure that a rate cut is coming should remember the words of former Vice Chair Alice Rivlin, who told Bloomberg, "Everybody on Wall Street wants a rate cut, but everybody on Wall Street always wants a rate cut. I don't think the Fed will necessarily pay attention to that."











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-11-2007 @ 10:00AM
nsoccio said...
A rate cut will be the worst thing the Fed's could ever do. Inflation is key here. Alice Rivlin said it right Wall Street is always looking for a rate cut, makes it easier for brokers to sell there products, promising better returns then you can get on fixed products. I know I was a Broker in the 80's, the lower the rates the higher your paycheck.
9-11-2007 @ 10:37AM
hermanne said...
govt waste
biggest problems
9-11-2007 @ 10:37AM
erwin said...
no bailouts with tax dollars
homeowners help program a trap to help lenders
will not help owners who overbought
9-11-2007 @ 11:05AM
petroni912 said...
Everything on Wall Street is bought with borrowed money. The reason Wall St howls for rate cuts is not because it's better for the economy, but because cheaper borrowing costs puts more money in the pockets of speculators. A rate cut will only further devalue the almost worthless dollar.
Notice how gold is now above $700 an ounce and oil pushing $77 a barrel. If Bernanke cuts rates, inflation will take off just like it did under Carter and Bernanke will go down in history as the G. William Miller of 2007.
9-11-2007 @ 11:15AM
petroni912 said...
Everything on Wall Street is bought with borrowed money. The reason Wall St howls for rate cuts is not because it's better for the economy, but because cheaper borrowing costs puts more money in the pockets of speculators. A rate cut will only further devalue the almost worthless dollar.
Notice how gold is now above $700 an ounce and oil pushing $77 a barrel. If Bernanke cuts rates, inflation will take off just like it did under Carter and Bernanke will go down in history as the G. William Miller of 2007.
9-11-2007 @ 12:35PM
DM said...
A FED rate cut is way overdue- 5.25% is simply too high a rate. The Fed raised rates way too quickly just like they dropped them to 1% way too fast. A 4.5% rate would be reasonable. Inflation??? Always secondary to keep the economy going and people employeed. People fret about inflation like old woman/men. I rememeber inflation being in the doubel digita in the 70's. We all survived.
9-11-2007 @ 1:03PM
Tom Gemelli said...
Inflation is the least of all worries for the fed. Their technical indexes are fixed and manipulated in order to reflect a low inflation number.
That is the reason real wage iincreases are not staying up with the real inflation and the middle class is falling further behind in purchasing ablility. It was home equity extraction and home equity increases that allowed home owners to spend more not wage or saving increases. Inflation will never be an issue as long as the fed measures inflation by their manipulation of the cost indexes.
9-11-2007 @ 1:14PM
LAURA said...
In the 70s all we did was survive! No luxury items bought on credit stimulating the economy and creating jobs that are sure to disappear with the credit. We'll survive, but we are going to have to relearn what we actually need to live. I think we need to learn this lesson. Our government needs to come to class too. But just like alot of people they tend to learn the hard way!
9-11-2007 @ 1:32PM
wildbill said...
Everyone has missed the reality. Blame for current uncertainty has been placed on the mortgage market, specifically the high risk part. The truth is that the entire housing market became a stock market with houses traded for a quick profit. It is now in a correction with no bottom in sight. Wall street wants a rate cut and the Fed is going to oblige. They have no choice. They are looking at the other side. This economy has been consumer driven for at least the last 5 years. Consumer credit debt is at an all time high. Wheat and corn have doubled in price in 2 years and we all MUST eat. Fuel still hovers at near 2.00 a gal. If the consumer slows, so will go the economy. A rate cut will not be a panacea.
9-11-2007 @ 3:08PM
Roger said...
Professor Ben the Marvel is letting us know about the facts.
The adjustment for our trade imbalance IS a lower dollar making exports cheaper overseas, but giving rise to inflation.
Higher long term rates result because over in the bonmd pits of Chicago -- where the traders talk to the people who really do have money (unlike Wall Street which uses other people's money and must "beat" the prevailing interest rate to survive -- articles in places like Bloomberg speak of a set of upcoming rate cuts in a convincing tone.
Our Professor behind the curtain knows what's what.
Maybe the Fed will move to a neautrsal bias. Maybe....
9-11-2007 @ 3:08PM
Roger said...
The DJIA up over 135; the S&P up nearly 15, after Bernake signals that there won't be a rate cut by talking about long term rates going up and the inflationary impact of our adjustment to the trade imbalance?
If it weren't so sad it would be funny.
The higher it gets, the bigger the Crash...or will it become known as The Collapse?
9-11-2007 @ 3:09PM
michael said...
I have been waiting on the sideline to jump back into the real estate market. The home prices are so out of reach that someone like me who makes a six figure income can not efford to but a single family residence in a decent neighborhood. I wouldn't be happy to have my tax dollars bail out others who went over their heads. I'm waiting my turn to own the American dream and I desrve it, so back off and let others pay for their mistakes.
11-27-2007 @ 7:21PM
v2logic said...
somebody tell the govt. to STOP behaving the way it is ! There's no need to wage war against countries & spend a billion dollars a day when the same money spent inside the country would help the very people who pay taxes. There's a host of issues the Govt. needs to take care of. The tax paying public deserves a LOT more than its getting.
Be American Buy American wouldnt hurt either. Put some money back in the pockets of the average citizen (the middle class) - he'll be better off with money to spend & as a result so will the economy. Dont we want investors betting on the dollar instead of against it. These rate cuts are no good for us in the long term. We all know the weakening of the dollar - but when are we going to do something about it & eventually reverse things around for a change.
Another Aggrieved Tax Payer.