Today's important stories from TheStreet.com: Jim Cramer's Portfolios of the Week, 
Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap: Spotting Tops and Bottoms.
Main Street and Wall Street have never been further apart than right now. I can imagine that if you live on Main Street and you don't have to buy or sell a house and you didn't buy one in the last three years, you might be thinking, what the heck? Inflation's going up, oil's going up, food's going up, the stock market's going up. Shouldn't the Fed be tightening? What's wrong with this picture?
To which I say, who cares? The Federal Reserve cuts when there is a credit problem or problems that could cause a dramatic slowdown in the economy. We have one. It's the implosion of securities backed by bogus mortgages. And it infects pretty much everything.
Now we can accept that Centex (NYSE: CTX) and Beazer Homes (NYSE: BZH) and Standard Pacific (NYSE: SPF) and KB Home (NYSE: KBH) may get run out of town on a rail. We don't have to think that Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) matters, and we can have some smaller banks blow up.
But it is not palatable to have a major company not be able to meet payroll because of a problem with the commercial paper market. We can't have housing, autos and retail go down because we can't finance anything. Finance matters. That's Wall Street's job.
If Wall Street can't finance Main Street, then Main Street will eventually feel it, and how good would it be to have that forestalled if it is at all possible. Once Main Street feels it, it can be too late.
Of course if you are of the opinion that it is right and good that Main Street feels the sting that is supposed to be felt by speculators, I can't help you.
I had a discussion today with a staffer at CNBC about whether I could be Chicken Little. I said that all my homework says I won't be and that there is much trouble in the system, but if something "bad" doesn't happen soon in mortgage-land, I could look like I was just one of those doomsayers.
Right now, I look like the latter because of Main Street, but on Wall Street, I am just calling it as everyone sees it on the fixed-income side.
Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
9-17-2007 @ 1:08AM
Gary E. Sattler said...
Mr. Cramer,
We are feeling it out here on Main Street and we have been for a while now but even though we're running low on capital and viable options, I don't think it's anywhere near too late yet. Of course that can change very quickly.
I am of the opinion that a reduction in interest rates is definitely not what we need right now. I see an interest rate reduction as a possible catalyst into another round of spending ourselves into deeper debt under the guise of reinvigorating the economy. Haven't we stepped into that thinly veiled trap often enough already?
Yes, higher interest rates will choke us for a time but perhaps a bit of choking is just what we need to get our collective heads out of our collective... you know.
In short:I think it's time to chill overall consumer spending, rebuild cash reserves, slash debt and require the banking industry to find and fund the solutions to the problems it has created for itself. By this time next year we could be looking towards solid ground again.
9-17-2007 @ 7:36AM
Kim Allen said...
Mr. Cramer, I don't know much about complicated finance, but I do know what I see, and within the past month I have noticed a definite downturn in local businesses I patronize. Just a few month ago I would have to wait in line for dinner at moderate restaurants like Sweet Tomatoes, Carraba's, or Olive Garden. Now I can take my pick and walk in and be seated right away. The local malls still have a lot of shoppers, but those shoppers aren't carrying bags like they used to--now, they are empty-handed.
What is most frightening is how quickly the US dollar has fallen against other currencies. When I see that the US dollar has weakend against currencies of second- and third- world countries, it makes me wonder: exactly where is our nation going?
9-17-2007 @ 7:46AM
Megan said...
Okay Gary--that all sounds rational..reasonable...but then after we all choke over the next year as punishment for those who "overspent" we'll more than likely elect a democrat for President who will raise taxes big-time, try to implement socialized medicine, and ultimately ruin the market AND the average family in one fell swoop. No thanks. Fed--cut the rates.....and help us survive the obvious train wreck we're headed for....
9-17-2007 @ 7:57AM
J DEL said...
MR Cramer no your not chicken lil.
Just yesterday.. sunday..HUGO CHAVEZ the PRESIDENT OF VENEZUELA
(VENEZUELA HAS THE LARGEST VERIFIED OIL DEPOSITS IN THE PLANET)
HAS ORDER HIS MONEY MINISTERS TO DROP THE DOLLAR AS ITS FOREIGN MONEY
RESERVE TO BE REPLACE BY THE EUROPE'S *EURO* .....BECAUSE OF THE REAL ESTATE
CREDIT EMERGENCY.
How many countries you think will soon follow suit??
9-17-2007 @ 8:00AM
G. Crockett said...
Very simply, impeach Pres. Bush!!!
9-17-2007 @ 8:16AM
andrew said...
You are right about people spending money they don't have if they do drop intrest rates but those people should get counceling as the reason they are loosing their homes is poor money mgm. The rest of us should not have to suffer for those that can't manage their lifes. I believe they should loose their homes.
9-17-2007 @ 8:29AM
Michael Schneider said...
Inflation has a lot of attention now esp. on Main Street but the situation has changed some short term at least as we have seen nat gas prices move down substantially over concerns about shortages in the past few years and we have gasoline prices now in decline since the summer driving season has ended. Most important, housing prices are falling because of the housing situation which will get worse before it gets better and we also have auto sales muddling along as sellers offer great deals to consumers. Things like nat gas prices and housing costs and oil are especially important for inflation because consumers have few choices and little control over their expenditures. You are a prisoner to those kinds of costs because while you might be able to eat at cheaper restaurants or adopt a cheaper vegetarian diet or go fishing somewhere to fight food costs, you still have to heat your home and there isn't too much of that bill you can control- other than avoiding waste. Low nat gas prices and low housing prices are more important in the inflation picture than the food costs which are pretty certain to rise. Consumers just have more choices on food expenditures. To me, this price decline situation means the Fed will indeed have room to cut the Fed funds rate. And productivity is slowing but still growing. The economy will still slow down but lowering the interest rate may help keep things from getting out of control on the downside-- it will at least help mitigate recessionary psychology and may help prevent some losses to the economy from the decline of the "wealth effect" (there is still a wealth factor from stocks if not from homes). A lower dollar from rate cuts will help our booming exports. We can expect and hope lower interest rates and other factors like strong exports will help keep the economy from a deep recession. Of course we still face more dropping shoes and credit shocks and the worst of the foreclosures in housing. But the picture isn't entirely bleak-- unless we end up in trade wars with places like China which will put us in real trouble that would be extremely difficult to get out of. There are pluses to this readjustment though-- I have no tears for a decline in M&A by private equity funds. Most likely, we will be able to muddle through as we have in the past.
9-17-2007 @ 8:35AM
MTfunds said...
Some of us who bought our home (to live in, not speculate) in the last 3 years have already felt the pain by our house being worth way less than we paid for it. I already am burned and have stopped shopping for anything extra and have stopped eating out. Why lower the rates now? Isn't that rewarding predatory lenders and appraisers who gave us over inflated appraisals? So I say don't save those greedy people who hurt homeowners let them fall. I won't shop for the goodies even if the interest rate is 0%.
9-17-2007 @ 8:36AM
GLENN said...
I think a boost in the economy could be made if the fed gov. passed a law where each and every share of stock, bought and sold at any time, a 5 cent tax or levy be charged .Just like the taxes on soda, beer, ciggeretts. do the math people . any given day about 50 mil would be generated. than put that money into paying for health coverage for all us citizens.
9-17-2007 @ 8:41AM
Ppdcole said...
Yes, G. Crockett,impeach President Bush. what crap! after all, he is responsible for Gore's global warming too. No, look at the financial market movers,banks, mortgage companies and ooh yes, perhaps even you too. When home prices were appreciating at a whirlwind pace, amatuer real estate (along with the professionals too), investors, who suddenly became "real estate "experts"refinanced and borrowed over their heads with the support and prodding of all of those listed above. Sound,age old principles of banking, borrowing and responsibility went out the window... for greed!Yes, blame Bush, but we must take a look at ourselves, realistically. The nation sat passively, self indulgent,in our new found source of wealth, home equities! When the crisis was starting to show craacks, the major home builders were still building new homes a record paces. The Ceo's of Pulte, Countrywide, etc., spun their rhetoric like some old time lying politican. As they looked you square in the face they would intone, " what pain? Hell, we are as strong as ever and getting bigger".
We all had our heads in the sand.
P. Cole
9-17-2007 @ 3:34PM
iris seltzer said...
2nd home market seems active. not like it was 2005. but we are selling millon dollar second homes. iguess the rich get richer
9-17-2007 @ 8:58AM
Steve said...
Let's see..hmmm..folks have borrowed more than they can afford to pay back - their homes aren't worth the inflated values they orignally bought them for - too many people got into the real estate market not to own a home to live in, but to "invest" their money in - and now, oops, that fragile house of cards is falling down. Speculators, like you were and in a sense still are Jim, are the slipperiest of all money-changers in the temple. Hedge funds, commodities brokers, real estate speculators - you are all snake oil salesman who are the first to scream "crisis" after you've oversold your brand of investing. The worst part is, you never seem to take the hard landing - you profit off of other people's losses by piously lecturing others on Television about how everyone else messed this thing up - you knew all along things were going to head downward. Yeah - sure you did.
9-17-2007 @ 12:27PM
Just My 2 Cents said...
The responsibility as well as the solution is shared by many, but I would agree with Mr. Cramer. Let's get the economy stimulated and some money flowing once again in all arenas. Then let the voice of reason begin to reign in decisioning, if that is possible, so reasonable credit decisions are made by the average consumer, and sound lending decisions by banks and mortgage lenders. I believe in the integrity and intellect of the majority!
9-17-2007 @ 9:07AM
AnyGoodDeals said...
It's too little too late the housing bubble already burst. Now they want to lower interest rates and dump in liquidity to save wallstreet? Thanks but no thanks. This is capitalism so stop the corporate welfare, that started the problem, let them feel the pain. Yeah our economy will suffer, but it's going to suffer anyway. People have lost equity they're not going to shop anyway. So let wallstreet "correct" just as they let houses "correct". People in modest homes have already lost them. Now let's watch the banks in their fancy buildings lose them too. Let's watch the big insurance co.'s in their fancy buildings lose their buildings. Let's watch the big business health care providers in their fancy buildings lose them too. I have no sympathy for wallstreet or outsourced corporate America. Let's "correct" the real problems at their source or should I say sourcery.
9-17-2007 @ 9:21AM
Sheryl said...
Jim Cramer for president!
9-17-2007 @ 9:27AM
Selma Y said...
Yes, come on down! "No down payment, no credit check, small monthly payments, buy now, pay later, no interest charges until 2015." That creed is what has caused all of the trouble with the economy here. Blame it on the lenders - banks, et. al.
9-17-2007 @ 9:36AM
A D said...
Stop the lies of corporate tax breaks given to off shore corporations.
Why are Japanese automakers getting billions in tax breaks when the "build here" and at the same time manipulate currency? If they want unfettered access to a marke, be part of it, not blatant liars. If they are so good, why do they pay Americans a pittance of what they pay at home. Stop giving away the nation with tax breaks to these liars.
9-17-2007 @ 9:39AM
Casey said...
The consumers...the real estate speculators regardless of whom and where...the uninformed and non-thinking "investors"...ALL wanted and decided they needed to get into the trough while the barn door was open. They forgot or really did not understand that the barn door would sooner than later close BEHIND them while they were feeding their greed and lack of common sense at the real estate table. Cut the rate a little perhaps, but better still, realize there are some people out there who really cannot afford ANY mortgage payment at all. Stupidity and greed will likely always be with us...
9-17-2007 @ 9:48AM
Dee said...
I too watched the whole nonsense with the housing market and forcasted it's burst. In Fort Lauderdale where I live the counties made out like fat rats. It seemed like everyone sold their home for high dollar and bought bigger more expensive homes. Our property tax in this state is off the chart. 2%. I watched one house built in 200 sell for 300g two years later 540g 2 years later 750 and now it is appraised for 1.2M. The property tax went from 4000 dollars to 27,000 dollars. Lets not even talk about insurance which would go for another 12 grand. Without mortgage that house now costs 800 a week just for taxes and insurance. This is a moderate home, one story with a tiny pool and no backyard. My 33 year old daughter will never be able to have a home. She teaches at a local college. There is no where for regular normal people to live. Normal people have been cut out of being able to live in a decent home. Florida refuses to lower these property taxes. They want us all to believe they will but the greed is over the top so nothing is being done. People will lose their homes because of taxes and insurance. This is evil. People just weren't thinking. WE made the state rich and we are all going to eat crap. As the housing prices are falling you would think that the taxes would go down too but they say we are collecting from a year back not right now. Mine went up another 4 grand. I can't imagine what one year from now will look like but I fear it will be horrible for the people. Maybe the politicians want florida for the ultra rich? Who knows.
9-17-2007 @ 9:50AM
Norma Spaeth said...
I am in the Title & Escrow business which in the last several months have gotten a lot of bad publicity over kickbacks and over charging. On average our fees are around 1% if not lower of the sales price, but a Realtor makes on average 6% and mortgage companies will make anywhere from 3% to 10% and sometimes more.
The one thing that people are not talking about is all the mortgage fraud that occurred in the last 5 years and is still occurring. There were so many scams being run that you almost lost tract of who the bad guy really was. Example, hispanic realtors whould convinence uneducated hispanic home buyers most proably illegal to obtain false social security numbers, which I found out can be done at our local swap meet, then got them a stated income loan, which means no verification of their income and of course valisfied credit reports etc.
As the escrow agent we have no way to verify any of that information, that is up to the lenders who are funding the loans, but they trusted the mortgage brokers to the point if we tried to bring any thing to the funding lenders attention it fell on deaf ears.
Millions of dollars were made by those mortgage brokers, some even paid money to use credit of others to make loans just to get the money.
Mortgage brokers and the Realtors involved in those scams should all be prosecuted, but my guess nothing will happen to them, it will be business as usual as soon as the market loosens up.
Time for the whole industry to wake up.
Anonymous