Today's important stories from TheStreet.com: Jim Cramer's Portfolios of the Week, 
Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap: Spotting Tops and Bottoms.
Worry about something else other than the chance that the Federal Reserve won't cut its short-term interest rate target. Worry about how little oil is out there to find, how we are running out of cheap natural gas and how China is the linchpin in oil usage, not us.
Those are some of the trepidations that I feel after reading the incredibly good speech by Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) chief Andrew Gould earlier this month, available on the company's fantastic Web site.
Gould's dealing with the realities of why the Oil Service HOLDRs (AMEX: OIH) won't quit. Easy oil is indeed running out, despite what the bulls tell us. The new additions to old fields give out earlier. The kind of oil and natural gas that is still left to find in North America is low-quality and not deeply reserved. The places where oil can be found are all deepwater or remote.
Just the kind of business that a Schlumberger or a Transocean (NYSE: RIG) can get you but a Nabors Industries (NYSE: NBR) can't. No wonder the charts are so different.
Worse, the national companies hardly spend on exploration and production, and the amount of money that has been spent by the major private oil companies is actually not even keeping up with inflation. That confirms my long-term fears that the major oil companies are just betting on lower prices in the out years, something that can't be true given how wrong the forecasts have been.
While he doesn't mean to, Gould also makes a fabulous case for plays like FMC Technologies (NYSE: FTI) and Core Labs (NYSE: CLB) because the technology to get more oil out of old fields is the best thing going right now.
Go read the speech. You won't sell any oil-service companies after you read it, and you will be looking for the Fed to do the wrong thing next week so you can buy them.
Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Transocean.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-17-2007 @ 12:17PM
Rich said...
I agree that current reserves are dwindling and that oil stocks are currently a very good investment. However, the idea that our long term reserves are running out is not really true.
I believe that much of the reason that the oil companies are not spending huge amounts of money on new exploration is due to the fact that they know that the process to extract oil from shale is just about there and soon the US will hold oil reserves equal to those of the rest of the world.
The testing that has begun by Shell and a few smaller companies will be complete in approximately five years. After that, it is very likely that the flood gates will open up to massive oil production in the Western US (Colorado, Wyoming, and Utah). Within this area, there is approximately 1.5 trillion barrels of oil.
9-17-2007 @ 1:30PM
brettze@aol.com said...
Rich
Shale oil is not a new thing. Jimmy Carter succeeded in stalling that disastrous environmental nightmare by pushing energy conservation. Maybe we have to return to 55 mph. We can forget V8 engines altogehter permanently!! Shale oil can be extracted only if Big Oil can keep making billions in earnings. Big Oil is not gonna make one cent on the dollar digging for shale, no sir.. It will probably mean today's $150 barrels before Big Oil will scale up the production. If not , it will keep it small. $80 oil is not profitable enough for shale oil yet, I am sure.. Big oil shareholders would sell stock if Big Oil went ahead and dig up shale oil and make ony a penny or two on the dollar... Big Oil is making ten pennies on easy oil but it is so big that it is plausible enough to keep holding oil stocks. If Big Oil goes back to making a penny or two on the dollar on shale oil, you better sell oil stocks now. Easy oil is running out fast and hold your hat and gaze down to the stormy $150-200 barrels and we will still be carpooling. I dont see how Big Oil can get away with the environmental disruption so massive from extracting shale oil and cooking them to meet millions of barrels in shortages daily in the coming future. Solar companies is doubling in capacities every year which is really slow like turtles, I think solar companies should be quadruple in capacities every year yes 400% every year.. We are pouring money in Big Oil but waiting for the government to help solar companies in a big way which will never come. Sad really sad.... Investors dont understand financial geometry at all...
9-17-2007 @ 8:08PM
John Singer said...
Apparently Cramer remains bullish on oil, including XOM, COP, XTO, RIG etc... Cramer's Exxon Mobil (XOM) calls are charted here - http://www.stocktagger.com/2007/09/jim-cramer-analysis-of-exxon-mobil-xom.html
9-18-2007 @ 8:01AM
Jeremy Eaton said...
Can anybody explain to me why BBP http://www.stockhouse.com/comp_info.asp?symbol=BBP&table=list"
on the TSX is performing so badly?
10-19-2007 @ 2:01PM
William Partain said...
Here's my 2 cents. Buy Devon Energy and just be patient. Its assets are so attractive that it is a no brainer if wondering should you invest. Her's what they've got going for them. Barnett Shale, Jack#2 Gulf of Mexico, Canada, Brazil , partnership with CNOOC in the China offshore. Struck large reserves in Beaufort Sea although that production won't be online for a long time Allassets in terrorist free locales. Very attractive buyout candidate for XOM, Chevron, COP, or BP. Lokk at how this stock has run up inthe past few years. Buy it and be patient. It'll hit $ 100.00 before year's end. You can't go wrong with this stock
11-01-2007 @ 4:36PM
brettze@aol.com said...
Jim
Do you want me to buy oil stocks if it means I will surely make them go down because I am not allowed to make money no matter how right I made the picks. Take this as the flip side of a coin... I will lose money on oil stocks while contributing a great deal on the battles against global warming... Look at MO.. It is stopped by me. Big Oil will be stopped by me.
11-01-2007 @ 4:36PM
brettze@aol.com said...
Americans are still underrvaluing oil because they are still refusing to conserve oil. They are takinig oil for granted. They are still driving alone to work and back home thinking they are still privileged to keep their three other average seats unoccupied in each car. They might feel it is unsafe to carpool with strangers which is understandable. I am not saying that carpools is easy to adopt. It take a sex change to start your carpool thingy. As long as most of Americans are still stuck in an mental inertia and the rest of the world is still buying more and more cars and starting competiting for the same oil puddle Americans are drawing from. Wall Street are barking at Americans that China is hunting for more oil and the North Sea is declining in oil production and that we are still in Iraq with a clenched fist on its oil puddle. So all is well, huh? Get ready for $500 oil barrels.Get ready for a suddenly new bus passing your house....for you to ride not driving anymore. Chinese and Indians are buying cars and are carpooling already... Americans is still proud of the WWII pastimes. Time to knuckle down and survive...
12-27-2007 @ 4:44PM
brettze@aol.com said...
Jimmy Carter was absoultely right about his famed speech about energy as equivalent of WAR. Jimmy Carter championed conservation and surely enough carmakers shrunk cars , honey. Oil prices plummeted to $7 a barrel, yes $7..or $10 if you missed the real lows. Now we have $80 or $100 barrels messing up our all important homeownerships or you can blame Comcast's $150 monthly subscriptions for 500 TV channels . You can also blame cigarette smokers blowing away dollars that can be used to keep up with mortgages. Beer and whiskey? But they are far preferable to being stuck in rush hours and wasting away hours listening to know nothing Rush over the Sirius radio... I guess conservation is not in Wall Street's dictionary...
12-27-2007 @ 4:44PM
brettze@aol.com said...
If any of you complain about your local politician apathiness, remember Wall Street... Wall Street needs to make money and politicians are expected to be careful on where to tread around... Do you still want to run for office, huh? What does it boil down?? It is your choice and responsibility to decide what to do with Big Oil not Wall Street , Iraq War , or your local politician. If you are sick and tired of Big Oil, then you better, best, very best start planning carpools....You got to be serious all on your own YOURSELVES!!! Forget Al Gore and the Globa Warming Band!!! Forget the experts who are doubting Al Gore's claims. If you dont care, keep doing what you are doing. If you do give a s***, then carpool is your only option other than riding a bicycle or a bus. Carpools is the best thing you can get and be damn sure not to blow that because if oil hit $200 a barrel...You can already forget about carpools. Buses is for you...