Microsoft (MSFT) and the laptop PC wave

Posted Sep 17th 2007 1:13PM by Brian White
Filed under: Products and Services, Microsoft (MSFT), Dell (DELL), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)

It's amazing how two decades after it became popular for home and business use, the personal computer continues to rack up double-digit sales growth every year. Some would say that the internet has been responsible for much of that growth, along with PC games and the like. But many of us are doing the same things with PCs these days that we were seven or eight years ago. So, why are PC sales still going strong?

One reason is that emerging markets are embracing PC technology which is creating ultra-cheap commodity-type pricing. Additionally, laptop PCs sales are growing so fast that it seems that everyone is trading in those home and business desktop computers for the portable laptop with built-in high-speed wireless internet capability. In fact, laptop PCs were reported to grow by over 40% in the second quarter of this year from the 2006 period.

That's simply amazing for a technology that is so old. But age doesn't matter: five-pound computers are all the rage and desktop PCs, confined to a study or bedroom, are being replaced by go-anywhere, powerful laptop systems. Dell, Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) knows this all too well, as its failure to have consumer-friendly laptops in the retail channel in the last 18 months has largely been responsible for it falling further behind Hewlett-Packard Corp. (NYSE: HPQ) as the world's largest PC maker. 2007 growth figures for the PC market are expected at 12.6% from 2006. Who says the PC is dead? Consumers and businesses vehemently disagree.

Although Michael Dell is now correcting the compass pointer of the company he founded, the PC hardware competitors are already there -- and HPQ is there more than any of them. If you had a choice, would you hold Dell or HP shares? That's your call. But one company whose fortunes are tied directly to PC sales would be Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT). After so many years of talk, the company's fortunes continue to rise nicely while its stock sits still. Fact is, Windows Vista gripes aside, the company still ships a copy of its operating system on almost every new PC sold (whether consumers like that or not). Is that priced into the stock? I doubt it, although it should be.

Disclosure: I own MSFT shares as of 9-17-07.

Tags: DELL, Dell, Inc., Dell,Inc., Hewlett-Packard, HPQ, inthenews, Laptop PCs, LaptopPcs, MSFT