Dress Barn's (DBRN) 4Q earnings top estimates; outlook disappoints


Women's apparel retailer Dress Barn (NASDAQ: DBRN) took its turn in the earnings confessional this morning, reporting a 38% increase in fourth-quarter profit. The company posted a profit of $33.6 million, or 48 cents per share, up from $24.4 million (35 cents) in the year-ago period.

Excluding unique items, DBRN would have earned 45 cents per share, topping analysts' expectations of 42 cents. Sales were up 11% during the reporting period to $379.9 million - above the consensus view of $377.1 million - and same-store sales grew by 5%.

DBRN officials were realistic about the current economic environment, however. While the trendier maurices brand has continued to post strong sales, economic concerns have indirectly resulted in greater-than-expected inventory levels at the eponymous Dressbarn chain. As a result, first-quarter markdowns have increased. For fiscal 2008, Dress Barn expects to earn between $1.40 and $1.50 per share, below analysts' outlook of $1.54 per share (before items). Same-store sales are expected to rise 3% to 4%.

In early trading, DBRN shares have rallied 5.6%. The stock has subsequently gapped higher above its 10-day and 20-day moving averages, which have worked in tandem to guide the shares lower since early June. What the stock has yet to overcome, however, is its 10-week moving average, which marked DBRN's intraday high so far today. This descending intermediate-term trendline has been acting as resistance for the past three months, and seems intent on continuing to challenge the shares.

Prior to Dress Barn's last earnings report, I'd enjoyed a trip to a family wedding in New Orleans, at which many of my female relatives, young and ... not as young ... were decked out in cute Dress Barn fashions. I finally headed to the store myself and while the particular location I visited was out of my size in many items, I did find sensible but fashionable business-casual items for a very reasonable price. In fact, I think I got a blouse, dress pants, and a skirt all for under a C-note. Not bad at all, but would you really expect couture-like prices from a shop with "Barn" in its name?

Beth Gaston Moon is an analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She does not own any Dress Barn shares.

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