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Chasing Value: Harley-Davidson (HOG) looking on down the road

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The last time I bought Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) I paid $18 a share and it is one of our oldest holdings. Today, I finally bought some more. I probably share way too much personal information with readers of BloggingStocks but I just can't bring myself to suggest to people something I would not do myself, and in any case my readership is not large enough to move the market (nor is the few shares we acquired.) Too many advisers are promoting stocks they themselves would not touch with a ten foot pole.

Harley is near a 52-week low of $46.15, closing yesterday at $48.59. Management trimmed production levels recently to better balance with demand after years of very healthy increases. It was bound to overshoot demand at some point and it is wise to moderate production. HOG had reached its 52-week high of $75.87 last November (2006). I am not looking for miracles with this purchase. I am looking for a sound business with good management, at a value price and solid prospects, and Harley-Davidson is all of that, and then some. A patient investor need not expect anything more than a return to its high sometime over the next three years.

If HOG simply returns to this level you would have a return over that period of 56%, approaching 20% per annum with the dividend yield of about 2.5%. Although management cut back on production goals slightly, it has plenty of confidence in its cash flow. By the way, this means my original dollars are earning over 6% now.

It is my belief (or speculation) that HOG can get back to its previous share price levels faster, and if it happens in, say, a two-year period you will see about a 30% annual return. For those who think I'm too optimistic, look further down the road, say four years out, and you are still getting a 15% return on your money over that time for a brand name with a long history.

A few other metrics of note: The P/E is under 12, and that is accompanied by a return-on-equity of 36.04% -- more than double most S&P companies. HOG also is maintaining 17% profit margins and the rebalancing was done in part to maintain its margins. From November 2006 when HOG peaked, through February 2007 insiders were selling shares. Since that time, as the stock has migrated lower, there have been almost no insider sales.

There are few companies offering all of the strong characteristics of Harley-Davidson at a discount. Its foreign sales are just becoming meaningful and as business in China, India and Eastern Europe grows the foundation for company growth becomes more secure. It is certainly worth looking at Harley today and holding on for what might be a very rewarding ride.

To find potential opportunities and verify my track record read Chasing Value or Serious Money.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He is on the advisory board of Internet start-up CircleBuilder.com.

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Last updated: July 05, 2009: 10:21 PM

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