Seagate's (STX) Watkins sees bright future for hard drive industry


Seagate Technology (NYSE: STX) has had an interesting seven years. The company was taken private by a group of investment firms led by Silver Lake Partners and Texas Pacific Group and then returned to the public markets a mere two years later for some odd reason. Wait: that reason was to give a payoff to the investors, as going off the market for 24 months gave the global company a chance to sneer at Wall Street's quarterly, paranoid expectations and focus on long-term strategy. The hard drive company you may have rarely heard of, though, is recording billions in revenue each quarter and is in fine shape financially. CEO Bill Watkins trumpets this fact all the time, but the Street rarely listens.

So, with Watkins alluding to $3 billion quarters in the near future and growing profits these days, is the market listening? Maybe not yet, but maybe your portfolio should. The never-slowing demand for storage is everywhere these days, hiding in plain site. Have a full-size iPod, Tivo box or other DVR, Xbox 360 or a computer in the home? Each one of those probably has some kind of hard drive in size, and according to Watkins, more consumers are buying all that storage than businesses these days. We have an insatiable need to store movies, music, files, taxes and everything else digitally, so this makes sense.


But, when the largest hard drive maker on the planet says that more consumers are buying its products than businesses, someone needs to take note. All those entertainment and productivity gizmos are consuming so much storage, it'll boggle the mind. And chew on this: the movie and music industries, using the DVD and CD forms, are just starting to transition to all-digital distribution models. Music is well on its way, and when movies get there, the amount of storage consumers need will silently explode even more than $3 billion per quarter in sales for Seagate and other hard drive companies. Think storage is a boring industry? Not to those who see where it is all going.

[Disclosure: I own STX shares as of 9-25-07]
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Last updated: February 13, 2012: 06:00 AM

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