Many investors are feeling good about the fact that the S&P 500 index has had five straight winning quarters (assuming, of course, that share prices don't fall more than 1.86% by today's close).
Yet if history is any guide, odds are that the next three months won't finish up the same way.
Over the past 25 years, winning streaks lasting more than four quarters have been somewhat rare. With the exception of the breathtaking 14-period run that began in the first quarter of 1995, there have only been two other occasions where prices rose for a fifth straight quarter.
The first was the streak that began in the final quarter of 1988, which was followed by a 3.81% decline in the first quarter of 1990. The second such streak began in the second quarter of 2003, after which prices fell by 2.30%.
Unless investors believe that we are entering another new stock market bubble, data from the past two-and-a-half decades suggests now is not the time to be feeling overly exuberant.
Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle.
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