Express Scripts Inc. (NASDAQ: ESRX) stock is trading much lower today after competitor Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG) announced a 4% Q4 profit drop, and missed earnings expectations by 7 cents, sending the stock spiraling down over 12% in early trading. If you think this stock could get hurt by the same issues as WAG and won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on ESRX.The stock has been climbing gently over the past several months, reaching a one-year high of $56.08 on Friday. This morning, ESRX opened at $55.20. So far today the stock has hit a low of $53.48 and a high of $55.30. As of 11:05, ESRX is trading at $54.67, down $1.15 (-2.1%). The chart for ESRX looks bearish with significant improvement, while S&P gives the stock an encouraging 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a November bear-call credit spread above the $60 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 9.9% return in 7 weeks as long as ESRX is below $60 at November expiration. Express Scripts would have to rise by more than 10% before we would start to lose money.
ESRX has never been above $60, and could be held down by resistance at the $55 level.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. DISCLOSURE: At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in ESRX.
Deere up on Q4 earnings performance
Reid Hoffman: LinkedIn will go public (at some point)
Retailers can't wait for Black Friday, open Thursday
