Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the just released book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth And Sleep Well At Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.
Try this exercise: The next time the stock market rockets higher, look at your portfolio and sell part of a position in a stock where you have a profit, a stock you know is overvalued. This action takes only a few minutes to do and allows you to put money in the bank. Done on a regular basis, this is a sure way to lock up gains, have money for investing in stocks that are underpriced, and make yourself feel great.
This is an excellent exercise for investors. It puts discipline into investing. Just like regular exercising, discipline is the key to success. Trading is not the goal here. Rather, you're looking to take advantage of "irrational exuberance" in a stock that has gone well beyond a decent valuation, such as a P/E (price to earnings) ratio that is much higher than the growth rate. Also, you're not looking to sell all your position. In fact, you may want to buy your full position back when a more rational valuation returns. If the stock continues on its irrational way, you still own shares and can sell those at an even higher price.
Some will object to this, say that you have to pay taxes on your gains, or that you're trying to trade. First, taxes are a compliment to your investing prowess. Second, this is not trading. This is selling a stock that is overpriced, one that has gone up and up and up and is beyond the radar screen for a rational investor. Trading is when you try to jump in and out of stocks on a daily basis, trying to catch a few ticks up for a small profit.
The next exercise: When the market is falling apart and there seems to be no hope in sight, buy a stock that is undervalued. In other words, when every one else is selling, you buy, even if only a small amount of a stock, a stock you follow and know has good earnings, one with a price that makes no sense given its solid fundamentals.
This exercise is great for picking up undervalued stocks when other investors are panicking and forgetting some basic rules about investing. They can't wait to get out. You, on the other hand, will be most anxious to get in because prices are so attractive.
Sounds so simple, doesn't it? Buy low, sell high. The problem is that when everyone else is buying, most investors act on their emotional instinct of following the crowd. They buy stocks. When stocks are selling way down, again, we tend to follow the crowd. It's the way our emotions work. That's why these exercises are hard to do. They require you to ignore your emotions and use your head, not your heart.
If you can develop the discipline of selling when everyone else is buying, then buying when everyone else is selling, you will make very good money in the stock market.
By the way, these exercises work very well for Warren Buffett.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
10-06-2007 @ 12:06PM
Don Martin said...
Novice investors have no business owning individual stocks.
10-06-2007 @ 2:17PM
gimpel said...
How else will they become experienced investors?
check out GIMPEL'S GALLERIES
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10-07-2007 @ 1:10AM
Robert Freedland said...
Ted,
I really like this post. As an amateur blogger and investor, I have been working at managing my own portfolio much in this fashion. First of all select the highest quality stocks (I have my own criteria regarding steady earnings, revenue, and free cash flow), and then manage them in a sensible fashion.
I am not concerned whether the market has moved higher before I start selling my gainers. I fully expect the stocks I pick to rise and when they do I agree that it is wise to buy a little.
In general, I try to avoid buying when stocks are declining. Sounds too much like the 'catch a falling knife' analogy. Instead, I buy when my own stocks are doing well and generating buy signals.
On the other hand, I think it is wise to sell losing stocks aggressively. These sales are also signals for me--using them as an indication that it is wise to 'sit on my hands'.
And yes, the individual investor is fully able to build portfolios of stocks. Mutual funds are useful and probably best in retirement accounts and the like, but there is nothing that says an individual is unable to use his own brains in figuring out investments.
At least that is my hope.
Stop by and visit my blog sometime.
Bob
Stock Picks Bob's Advice
http://bobsadviceforstocks.tripod.com/bobsadviceforstocks/
10-20-2007 @ 7:07PM
Ravindra said...
Hi,
Wanted to know where i can find the stock prices for a particular organization in the previous years, for example in May 2004 / or earlier than that.
Regards,
Ravi