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Consumer spending: Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) & Wal-Mart (WMT)

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Every day we hear business reports speak about consumer spending. Is it up or down? Will consumer confidence remain stable? How will the economy hold up if consumer confidence dips? A lot is riding on these numbers and it remains a symbol of our economic strength.

Among stocks we follow closely on this site Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) seems to be heavily dependent on consumer confidence based on the premium pricing and perceived value in its product line. Yes, Apple just cut prices on the iPhone by $200 but it still costs $399. While the phone seems to be a technological wonder and consumer hit, if times get tough you still can get four free phones with a family plan through the major vendors; for a multi-phone family that is a lot of money. Apple's share price was up notably on Friday, closing at $161.45. While I admire just about everything this company is doing, I think the stock price has advanced passed what I can deem reasonable unless the next 12 months can produce a 50% increase in profits from their current lofty levels. That will not be easy.

Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) would seem less susceptible to weaker consumer demand since it offers an extremely broad base of products, and offers discounts on many items all the time. It also has very deep data on consumer buying patterns and can adjust to changes relatively quickly in a way Apple cannot. Apple has to deal with design, manufacturing, and lead times that leave it much more vulnerable to a downturn in the economy. Amazon's share price was up with the overall market on Friday, closing at $93.43. Having a P/E of 127 (TTM) Amazon's valuation has long since left me behind.

From my value bias way of looking at things it is overpriced even if earnings going forward were 100% higher in the coming twelve months. That's right double. At today's sky high price you are paying more for Amazon than you would be paying for Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG) and I do not believe any stock is worth a higher premium than that. While Amazon might do better than Apple in a soft economy, it has considerable debt and Apple has none. When times are tough that is also a factor.

Then there is Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) the largest retailer in the world. It has not seen tremendous growth over the last few years except in the number of lawsuits, anti-big-box store sentiment, competition, and more. Many of the company's traditional fixed costs have been rising, but it's product mix is larger still than Amazon's. It is the No.1 discounter now and may benefit from the pain of others in a weaker economy. Wal-Mart's share price was up a tad Friday, closing at $45.37. While Wal-Mart presents the greatest value in terms of share price metrics, it also has modest potential for growth, and has lagged the overall market for quite some time. In hard times it might be a good hedge since it pays an above-average dividend, is widely held and is at the lower end of it's 52-week range. But if this was one's investment criteria, other stocks come to mind first.

One of the things that got me thinking about consumer spending lately is that we are also told Americans do not save enough. Can you spend more and save at the same time? Only if your income is going up. Naturally, I do not believe that is happening. Furthermore, the lower interest rates have reduced the buying capacity of consumers by devaluing the dollar. Do lower interest rates balance this out? I think the lower rates help Wall Street and the devalued dollar hurts Main Street, but that's just my gut reaction and I have not studied the matter sufficiently to know for sure.

Are you saving more than last year or spending more than last year? The watch on consumer spending is a measure of the health of the economy, but what if consumer confidence was high but savings trends increased so that company earnings were still negatively affected. Corporate America wants you to spend and take on credit and pass your resources to them. I say save some for yourself.

To find potential opportunities and verify my track record read Chasing Value or Serious Money.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-13.3710,213.57
NASDAQ-7.742,146.32
S&P 500-3.151,089.93

Last updated: November 10, 2009: 01:34 PM

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