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Greenspan says housing market will fall, worries over income disparity

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Alan Greenspan, former Federal Reserve chairman and economic 'Maestro,' spoke this morning at a packed Radio City Music Hall. In a very Wall-Streety charcoal grey suit and red tie, the man who presided over two decades of nearly uninterrupted growth in the U.S. seemed relaxed and happy -- there to bask in his glory, not raise the alarm.

That doesn't mean he had all good news to tell to the 5,000 attendees of the World Business Forum. Greenspan had a few basic concerns (which will be familiar to those who have heard his latest thoughts as he makes the media rounds to promote his memoir, "The Age of Turbulence"):

* The housing market is going to continue to decline. It's simple really -- there is a lot of unsold inventory of newly constructed homes still coming on the market. Builders will cut prices to sell and that will drive down the broader real estate market. How significant will the declines be? He wasn't sure.

* The odds of a recession are between 30% and 50% (or 42.35%, Greenspan said as a joke). In March he thought the odds were only 30%, but following the crisis in the credit markets, he now thinks it could be as high as 50%. The deciding factor will be how the stock market holds up. Since it is recently hitting new highs even as economic growth slows, things are looking pretty good.

"The system is working," was a common refrain during the talk. Greenspan isn't worried about implications of China's break-neck growth (even though he does think the stock market there is in a bubble). Nor does he fear the consequences of a falling dollar (it's been declining for years now and growth continues). Even sky-high oil doesn't seem to phase him (we thought growth would get hammered at $50 a barrel crude, now we're at $80 and we're still growing, he argues.)

What does Greenspan worry about? There is something, and it is no less weighty matter than the future of Capitalism. The problem Greenspan sees is growing income disparity in the U.S. (You know that old bugaboo -- how a few people are getting ridiculously, impossibly rich while more of the middle class is slipping into poverty).

Capitalism always has winners and losers, Greenspan explained. Some people get rich, others get laid-off. But Americans are willing to accept that if they believe they are operating in what is basically a just system. Are this year's contrasts between private equity billionaires and working class evictees changing some people's minds?

Greenspan didn't draw out the point and the friendly moderator didn't ask a follow-up question, so my guess is that what might have been a rather profound warning was largely lost on the 5,000 execs at the conference. Clearly Greenspan sees the risk of a populist groundswell against big business growing. Maybe he'll make the point a little stronger next time.

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Last updated: July 06, 2009: 11:54 AM

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