Seagate Technology (NYSE: STX) has begun shipping the first of its hybrid hard drives for notebook computers and smaller computing devices needing high-performance storage at reasonable cost. Hard drives are inside almost every desktop and laptop PC these days, and although they have advanced technologically with processor speeds and other performance metrics, they are still the performance bottlenecks in almost every computer. Why? At the root, hard drives are still where they were decades ago -- reading and writing data from spinning magnetic platters. Many tricks have upped performance since 2001 or so, but hard drives still look to be aging for the computing needs which always require more performance year after year. Now, for pure storage needs, like for iPods or TiVo boxes, hard drives are fine. As laptop computers replace desktops, more performance is becoming crucial to these systems. As a result, the hybrid hard drive was born. Newer units from Seagate contain 256 Megabytes of RAM (solid-state storage) to augment those spinning magnetic platters. Here's the only wrinkle: there is a cost premium to that. Will consumers accept that? Highly doubtful, and so we have a conundrum.
Seagate's newer hybrid hard drive products may make their way to higher-end laptop computers soon, and the early adopter consumer and technologically minded will pay the expected 30% premium just to get the added performance (well, hopefully added performance). After a while, volume and economics will drive that premium down to where there is none. If Seagate really wants to become the premier supplier of new-generation hybrid drives above where it already sits with existing market share, that premium needs to come down to 10% to 15% at the most. That may crimp margin a little, but competitive laurels won't ever rest when it comes to the hard drive industry.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
10-30-2007 @ 2:24PM
Patrick said...
whats with the silly comment about
"(well, hopefully added performance)"? 256 MB of RAM is huge, by an order of magnitude!
Secondly, do you think consumers have the patience of waiting for the prenium price to fall? With economics driving the premium down, by definition that implies that this is indeed a market with sufficient margin for competetors to enter. On that note, what competetors? Thats right, none.
Im not an economic genius but if there is no competition then you control the volume. To determine consumer value, start high and model your sales as a function of volume and margin. Tweak volume and margin until your volume/margin ratio is maximized with respect to the resources in your portfolio. By the time others enter the business you should have the flexibility of ramping up production while the market erodes the margin. Ride the wave! Dropping the margin initially would only reduce that ratio durring the time you control volume and market share. STX is so vertically integrated compared to competitors, I dont see anyone else stepping up anytime soon, even if they did, I wont suspect any significant volume.