Colgate's (CL) restructuring is producing results


As discussed, with the markets in a choppy/consolidation mode (or perhaps worse), the consumer product sector has appeal as a defensive strategy, and Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL) is worth a review.

Colgate's restructuring is working, and Wall Street expects 2007/2008 results to show it. In late 2004, CL initiated a 4-year cost reduction program including a +10% workforce reduction, new product roll-outs, an emphasis on larger-growth markets, and the more-adept deployment of marketing resources.

The results to-date? The CL train is on-time, with analysts generally seeing low-double-digit annual revenue growth through at least 2008, and probably longer. An eye-opening stat -- Colgate is an enhanced, consumer products defensive play: 65% of CL's revenue stems from personal, oral and home care sales outside North America. Hence, even if U.S. consumer goods sales slump badly (which is not likely) CL can look for international consumer product operations to support results. The Reuters F2007/F2008 revenue consensus estimates for CL are $13.5 billion / $14.4 billion. Colgate's shares Tuesday afternoon traded 23 cents higher to $73.18


(Note: Technical analysis agnostics stop reading here; all others continue.)

Colgate's chart displays the tell-tale signs of a performing, well-positioned consumer products stock that's right for the times. CL barely sold-off during the August 2007 market slide, and has since risen nicely, from about $65 to the current $73 range. Further, that move included a substantial advance to $75, with the stock showing a healthy correction following that advance, which pushed the stock away from its top Bollinger Band. In sum, technically, CL looks poised to move higher.

Stock Analysis: Colgate is a low-risk stock. Investors seeking a consumer products defensive play should consider purchasing CL shares. Very conservative investors may wish to consider waiting until CL pulls-back closer to $71, but if the company continues to perform well, as expected, one may not get that chance.

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