I have been wondering lately if the sagging value of the dollar is actually going down through economic gyrations or being pushed down by design.
There are many repercussions. No one less than Rodrigo Rato, head of the International Monetary Fund, warned Monday of a potential "abrupt fall" in the US dollar that could roil the global economy. "There are risks that an abrupt fall in the dollar could either be triggered by, or itself trigger, a loss of confidence in dollar assets," Rato said at the close of annual meetings here of the IMF and the World Bank, according to news reports.
Here is what is really on his mind: Europe may take steps to temper the strong appreciation of the Euro, which is weighing on exports from the 13-nation bloc. "There is a risk that exchange rate appreciation in countries with flexible exchange rates -- including the Euro area -- could hurt their growth prospects, and that in these circumstances protectionist pressures could worsen," he said.
From my perspective I have wondered if the Bush administration is at least applauding the weak dollar as it improves U.S. trade imbalances, helps prop up the stock market and worried investment bankers, and strengthens American companies in many regards.
For example, the weaker dollar not only allows American companies to sell more overseas but the lower interest rates create a situation where they can borrow here cheaply and expand their reach while European competition is paying higher rates for capital and also having a harder time selling goods and services.
I find it laughable that the dollar has dropped about 40% compared to the Euro, yet President Bush can brag we have seen low single digit improvement in our quarterly trade imbalance. So, in essence he is happy that our buying power is shortchanged in the neighborhood of 35%.
I would venture to guess that as our rates go down, foreigners will be buying fewer Treasury notes, increasing the need to run the printing presses, causing inflation at home. One thing I absolutely do know is that they will be diverting this capital to buying up equities in the United States in the form of real estate and stocks, at what to them is a gargantuan discount.
All this leads me to believe that the Federal Reserve should not cut interest rates further. They should spend all their energy now helping Congress and the administration formulate a long term policy to prevent the banking industry, Wall Street (and their cohorts, the security ratings companies) from offering the snake oil loans that made everyone sick.
To find potential opportunities and verify my track record, read Chasing Value or Serious Money.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
10-24-2007 @ 5:14PM
Bill Pilker said...
The lower interest rates reduce domestic savers return as well. I agree that rates should not be lowered.
10-24-2007 @ 5:47PM
john doe said...
Yeah, Bush strikes again! Wars, devestating slow responses to desaster, pardoned felons on his "take care of" list, and arrogance unmatched in history. A broken and prostrate dollar is just one more thingfor him to be proud of. Can the world love us any more?
Lousiana just elected a younger versionof the "schrub", the Mullah Jindal and his mentor the right reverened christian talliban spiritual head I-a-tolla-u Foster, to the govenors mansion. Expect a name change from Baton Rouge to Rougeabad. And the state from Louisiana to Louisistan. Jindal followers shout, "The massiah has come, his is your govenor elect, and Sherriff Lee will arise in three weeks from his recent demise."
10-24-2007 @ 5:49PM
bob said...
I agree , stop the bleeding.Leave interest rates were they are and make the banks responsible for there error. Pay back our debt ! Or have the Chinese leadership engage in our next political debate. They own us anyway. This trend started under Greenspan. Wall Street has to stop running the Fed. Now before it's too late. Today's recovery based on a future rate reduction ???? Absurd, sound policies are needed. We all know it. What is done today will effect our children's future. My father's generation would never have put themselves in this position. It's been a great ride, now let's fix it!
10-24-2007 @ 5:55PM
ALASTAIR said...
I definitely agree with the IMF head's view that the long-term effects of the Fed's decision to lower the discount rate by 50 basis points and any further reduction(s) will lead to inflation. We are now on the road back to Jimmy Carter's America.
I suggest taking profits everywhere, in US and foreign stocks, and buying real estate and gold. I would keep a good chunk of cash on hand as well.
10-24-2007 @ 6:02PM
Tom said...
The fed cut interest rates by 0.5% last month to help bail out the sub prime "culprits."
At that time I posted that was in essence adding a second story to what is already a "house of cards."
If fed cuts rate again this month, with record high oil prices and record low dollar .... that will in effect be adding a third story to this "house of cards"
10-24-2007 @ 7:15PM
Edward said...
The absurdity of the Fed sheparding of the financial excesses in the US economy in recent memory is further punctuated by the absurd claims by Mr. Greenspan that he didn't forsee the effects of the housing/ financing/price buble. If that is true he should have been in college in the 1st Economics semester not the Fed Chairman. Frankly even a hafwit saw this comming. We had irrationsal exuberance, stock buble, shady/unsaund financing, house buble and all the while the fed is dancing to the big business/ wall street/ big banking tunes.
10-24-2007 @ 7:42PM
abc123 said...
This system of bad loans was exactly the biggest reason for the crash of '29, & the resulting Great Depression! You cannot extend loans to anyone with a pulse that have no way to pay them back, and the prop up their loans via the gov't.
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"The Federal Reserve ... should spend all their energy now helping Congress and the administration formulate a long term policy to prevent the banking industry, Wall Street (and their cohorts, the security ratings companies) from offering the snake oil loans..... "
10-24-2007 @ 7:45PM
abc123 said...
And now you have old Greenspan looking back and saying that "he might have misjudged some things"....GREAT! Wonderful! If the head of the Federal Reserve for all those years now says he made a mistake, exactly how bad IS our economy, that he hid it for so many years????????
10-24-2007 @ 7:54PM
abc123 said...
For so many years, everyone treated Greenspan like he was God, and bowed down & kissed his butt--now he's walking around like a dog with his tail between his legs, saying that he made some serious misjudgments about the home mortgage loan problems during the last 2 adminstrations. He is the one who made the policy that dictated the interest rates, which governed the economy. As poster #6 so aptly stated, where does this leave all of us in this "house of cards" he is responsible for? He has been in charge for a LONG time - can the damage be undone before the economy collapses? You mean he couldn't see the danger in giving loans to people that couldn't possibly pay them back? And this was in charge of the Federal Reserve? Heaven help us all..........
10-24-2007 @ 7:57PM
Jefferson Lee said...
Now wonder John Doe uses that name. He cain't spell werth uh sheet!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
10-24-2007 @ 9:26PM
abc123 said...
The U.S. has propped up the world's economy for a long time. Look what happened during the 1st Depression - our economy collapsed, and it sent the depression worldwide.
Yes Tom, and when that third story collapses, will everyone be ready for the next (even worse) Great Depression? When it hits, we should all send thank you cards to Greenspan! (Course we won't be able to afford food or fuel, let ALONE postage, now will we?)
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...that was in essence adding a second story to what is already a "house of cards."
If fed cuts rate again this month, with record high oil prices and record low dollar .... that will in effect be adding a third story to this "house of cards"
Posted at 6:02PM on Oct 24th 2007 by Tom
10-24-2007 @ 9:27PM
michael barrett said...
"The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers'' written by Paul Kenney years ago surveyed fallen empires. One lesson that may be drawn from his book is that America has been in decline for generations because of its profligate public officials, spending money we don't have on things that we don't need, neglecting basic needs such as infrastructure and waging endless war to enrich the military-industrial complex while smashing the working middle class.
10-24-2007 @ 9:28PM
michael barrett said...
spelling should be Paul Kennedy
10-24-2007 @ 9:31PM
stevy said...
where are the profiteers from these unsavory mortgage loans? will they not be held responsible for knowingly loaning $ under false info' - it is like the snake oil salesman saw the sheriff coming from down the street & ran leaving people with
empty pockets & swollen bellies.....
10-24-2007 @ 9:48PM
Diane L. Pelletier said...
The real sad part of all this is that Bush and the republicans and big business have put us and the world on a path to a depression and anyone who saw this coming has done nothing. The Bush\Cheney administration and the elected republicans for the last 6 years have had the power and they all need to be held accountable. The IMF, the world bank and all the nations made it clear back in 2006 that this is where we were heading it is just a matter of time when our stock market goes belly up. Am I miss doom and gloom no go back to the magazine Forbes in 2006 and see the articles then you will have your answers, God help us all.
10-24-2007 @ 10:02PM
Ran said...
The real sad part of all this is that the majority of Americans could care less about the value of the dollar because all they care about is having a home and their kids being able to play Little League baseball. For those of us who travel out of the U.S. quite often realize that we are becoming a third world nation value wise. A Britain comes to America and can buy an oceanfront house for 35% less than you just by exchanging his Pounds for Dollars.
10-24-2007 @ 11:28PM
ALASTAIR said...
Under the neo-Mussolini, crypto-fascist corporate state which Dr. Bernanke and his boss have created, the FED and the White House are now both in the business of protecting the corrupt, inefficient, and ultimately destructive money laundering processes of the US banking industry which not only created the derivatives, but constantly tell us they "don't know the price of the underlying assets etc". If the financial services industry (aka US banks) and the FED don't know, how are we the investing public to know? Are the frauds on Wall Street trying to get us to buy their snake oil " financial stocks" so that they can take a royal powder on us? You bet they are. Stay away from all stocks and keep buying gold, US Treasuries, and keep lots of cash. The Bush-Bernanke depression is upon us!!!
10-24-2007 @ 11:32PM
Douglas said...
How can anyone expect anything but what is happening? The so called Feds scrape hundreds of billions off the economy for doing nothing but book keeping and fluctuating the interest rates. What keeps the American economy going is all the hard working 401s. Had our Government been doing their job all that billions and billions of dollars in hard earned Fed interest would have been going back to the American people? Am I stupid or just a moron. No, this is the biggest scam on the planet. Rapping the most greatest free enterprise victory to exist in thousands of years. Now it is to late so just batten down the hatchet and see how these charlatans try and keep and preserve their international money monopoly. The only way this diabolical system can keep going is through the war machine. So, get ready for more bigger battles. Sorry folks, after all the books I have read, this is what I see repeating over and over. Hey, if I have been misled please tell me so.
10-24-2007 @ 11:36PM
Sam said...
If Europe and the IMF are really concerned about the rise of their Euro all they have to do is cut their interest rates also in lock step with the rate cuts by the USA. If the European Union cut their interest rates considerably they could not only stop the rise of the Euro, but also better compete with imports from from SE Asia and China that are devestating European nations and jobs.
10-25-2007 @ 12:39AM
tde said...
Poster #13 - Diane, which issue of Forbes 2006 or more than one issue?