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Bush administration pushing dollar down or allowing it to fall? IMF chief sounds alarm

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I have been wondering lately if the sagging value of the dollar is actually going down through economic gyrations or being pushed down by design.

There are many repercussions. No one less than Rodrigo Rato, head of the International Monetary Fund, warned Monday of a potential "abrupt fall" in the US dollar that could roil the global economy. "There are risks that an abrupt fall in the dollar could either be triggered by, or itself trigger, a loss of confidence in dollar assets," Rato said at the close of annual meetings here of the IMF and the World Bank, according to news reports.

Here is what is really on his mind: Europe may take steps to temper the strong appreciation of the Euro, which is weighing on exports from the 13-nation bloc. "There is a risk that exchange rate appreciation in countries with flexible exchange rates -- including the Euro area -- could hurt their growth prospects, and that in these circumstances protectionist pressures could worsen," he said.

From my perspective I have wondered if the Bush administration is at least applauding the weak dollar as it improves U.S. trade imbalances, helps prop up the stock market and worried investment bankers, and strengthens American companies in many regards.

For example, the weaker dollar not only allows American companies to sell more overseas but the lower interest rates create a situation where they can borrow here cheaply and expand their reach while European competition is paying higher rates for capital and also having a harder time selling goods and services.

I find it laughable that the dollar has dropped about 40% compared to the Euro, yet President Bush can brag we have seen low single digit improvement in our quarterly trade imbalance. So, in essence he is happy that our buying power is shortchanged in the neighborhood of 35%.

I would venture to guess that as our rates go down, foreigners will be buying fewer Treasury notes, increasing the need to run the printing presses, causing inflation at home. One thing I absolutely do know is that they will be diverting this capital to buying up equities in the United States in the form of real estate and stocks, at what to them is a gargantuan discount.

All this leads me to believe that the Federal Reserve should not cut interest rates further. They should spend all their energy now helping Congress and the administration formulate a long term policy to prevent the banking industry, Wall Street (and their cohorts, the security ratings companies) from offering the snake oil loans that made everyone sick.

To find potential opportunities and verify my track record, read Chasing Value or Serious Money.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

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Last updated: July 05, 2009: 12:09 PM

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