Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) is already in deep trouble because of defaults in its subprime loan business, but who would have guessed that some of its higher-quality loans would get into trouble just as quickly?
The Wall Street Journal writes that, "Some loans classified as prime when they were originated are now going bad at a rapid pace." These loans are known as option adjustable-rate mortgages. They allow borrowers to pay very little in the first few years of the loan period. But an analysis prepared for The Wall Street Journal by UBS AG shows that 3.55% of option ARMs originated by Countrywide in 2006 and packaged into securities sold to investors are at least 60 days past due. That delinquency rate is worse than other mortgage companies offering similar products.
The really big trouble with these loans could begin in 2009, when more of them reset to higher rates.
The news points out two issues that have been largely masked as Wall Street and the media focus on the subprime mortgage mess. The first is that poor lending practices may have allowed a number of middle class home buyers to take on debt that they almost certainly could not repay unless housing prices continued to move up sharply for another five to ten years. The other is that if the mortgage default rates are bad today, the problem could worsen in a year or two.
The bottom line is that one of the largest drags on the US economy, which is housing prices and mortgage payment problems, may not bottom out for another 24 months.
If that is true, the recession that may be coming could be longer and deeper than investors would care to imagine.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor of 247wallst.com.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
10-24-2007 @ 11:03AM
Dar said...
I guess I have a few questions. How did the people responsible for creating this loan product not see this coming? Its a simple math problem if Johnny has 10 pies and has to pay Susie 12 pies how many pies does Johnny need. If a homebuyer is making so much money a month and his mortgage payment is going to increase by 3-4% where is that money coming from.
Now I can understand how the consumer can fall victim because he has hired who he believes to be a professional realtor and lender to help him buy his home. The buyer does not understand the process or the lingo he is being guided by lender who is advising him this is the best investment he can make.
So now that we are here and the lives of millions of Americans are being destroyed again, by the very people we have been trained to trust and believe, (our corporations and our government). This is the tip of the iceberg one has to ask was there a hidden agenda in issuing these loans, I mean after all if they had thought trough the process from the inception to the reset how could there have been any other outcome....the question is why would anyone want to creat this nightmare who is benefiting from this?
10-24-2007 @ 12:09PM
kiromark said...
Were you born yesterday Dar?
What are you talking about when you say you trust the lenders AND the government? They used every trick in the book to sell those loans and collect the points. Every body is at fault here, they were too busy making a bvuck and counting on the prices to increase, all along denying that there was even a bubble. The buyers were falsifying their income, realters were providing fake 1040's, a lot of flippers were buying with no down payments... How long do you think this would last?
10-24-2007 @ 12:33PM
HidekiMatsui said...
I am trying to understand how rising home prices would alleviate a homeowner's rate reset in the future. If you can not afford the increased rates as a result of your income, how would an increase in the value of your house offset that? Thx!
10-24-2007 @ 12:38PM
John Ferris said...
Duh, only a high school grad, but in '66 bought a 2,600 s.f. house w/2 acres for $29K with $10,500 down -- monthly payments all of $135 @ 6% on an $18,500 loan with no penalties for early payment. Worked 55-60 hour weeks, making payments of $500 from my overtime -- often more. Paid off house at age 28 (with 5 years in military) so was really only 23. Never had credit cards --paid cash for all items, including cars -- never hired anyone to perform jobs, and never made over $47K in a 45-year career.
Don't gamble, grow most food, wife is a genius homemaker/seamstress/decorator/mother/baker/grandmother and you little bastards never listen to folks like us. Suffer, fools! So much for college educations! Quit watching television!
10-24-2007 @ 12:39PM
Dar said...
Kiromark I was born the day before...:)
I understand what you are saying about every trick in the book and I understand that greed is the basis for the situation we are now in. I was being facetious about trusting the government and real estate professionals.
10-24-2007 @ 12:42PM
donroutledge said...
When you find a realtor who does not think of himself or herself first, please post the name of the firm.
10-24-2007 @ 1:33PM
Dar said...
Don...I have worked as a vendor service to the realtors in my area for over 30 years. I have found a few that are true professionals its almost like finding a good Doctor today. But trust me there are good ones.
10-24-2007 @ 2:48PM
Rick said...
Anyone in their right mind who uses Countrywide financial for ANY real estate transaction has to be the idiot of all idiots. They are the most predatory, untruthful, used car lot of lenders there are. Their bait and switch tactics on their TV ads, their motto of "we are #1 in helping people" is pure crap. The CEO should be put in prison with the sign "I am a greedy SOB" hung around his neck for life. Where are the heart attacks when you really need em'.
10-24-2007 @ 3:00PM
Rick said...
The real cause of all the perdatory lending practices used against the American society lies with the FICO system. This system allowed all the companies to come up with any questionable score as a justification to put them in a " first along with a second" mortagage so that the lendors could collect points on both and screw the consumer from both ends instead of one.