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More bad loans at Countrywide

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Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) is already in deep trouble because of defaults in its subprime loan business, but who would have guessed that some of its higher-quality loans would get into trouble just as quickly?

The Wall Street Journal writes that, "Some loans classified as prime when they were originated are now going bad at a rapid pace." These loans are known as option adjustable-rate mortgages. They allow borrowers to pay very little in the first few years of the loan period. But an analysis prepared for The Wall Street Journal by UBS AG shows that 3.55% of option ARMs originated by Countrywide in 2006 and packaged into securities sold to investors are at least 60 days past due. That delinquency rate is worse than other mortgage companies offering similar products.

The really big trouble with these loans could begin in 2009, when more of them reset to higher rates.

The news points out two issues that have been largely masked as Wall Street and the media focus on the subprime mortgage mess. The first is that poor lending practices may have allowed a number of middle class home buyers to take on debt that they almost certainly could not repay unless housing prices continued to move up sharply for another five to ten years. The other is that if the mortgage default rates are bad today, the problem could worsen in a year or two.

The bottom line is that one of the largest drags on the US economy, which is housing prices and mortgage payment problems, may not bottom out for another 24 months.

If that is true, the recession that may be coming could be longer and deeper than investors would care to imagine.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor of 247wallst.com.

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Last updated: November 10, 2009: 11:16 PM

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