Target (TGT) cuts back on October sales forecast

Target (NYSE: TGT) announced a weaker October sales forecast this week, causing its shares to take a small decline as analysts, as usual, responded to mind-numbingly short-term mental ramblings and may have seen a possible retail apocalypse coming. Well, that's a tad dramatic, but you get the picture.

Target officials said that same-store sales for October would only increase 2% to 4% for October. Reasons were given as higher-than-anticipated daily sales volatility and declining sales for the first two weeks of the month. Although previous sales forecasts were in the range of 3% to 5%, this minor, predictive drop was enough to give some investors the willies. Too bad warmer weather in October undercut the general seasonal spike in winter apparel sales. Ah -- the market is a slave to Mother Nature, yes?

The problem as I see it is with Target trimming its sales forecast for the second month in a row. In September, the discount retailer took its guidance from a 4% to 6% same-store sales growth figure down to 1.5% to 2.5%, setting up a few possible retail outlook shenanigans from industry pundits who saw this as one of the first signs of increasing consumer spending weakness heading into the holiday shopping season. Time to whip out that crystal ball and see what's on tap for November sales. More at 11...