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A sucker rally in Vonage (VG)

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Vonage (NYSE: VG) settled its big patent dispute with Verizon (NYSE: VZ). After hours yesterday, shares in the VoIP pioneer were up over 70% to $2.61.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "Vonage agreed to pay Verizon either $80 million or $117.5 million, depending on the outcome of a decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit." The company has settled a suit with Sprint (NYSE: S) and has another legal fit pending over patent matters with AT&T (NYSE: T).

The rally in the stock misses the point that Vonage is still losing a lot of money and its cash balance drops with each settlement. At the end of the June quarter, the company had $275 million. But, operational deficits and settlements have probably cut that considerably. Vonage had an operating loss of $33 million during that quarter.

The market is also moving away from Vonage. Fiber products from the large telecom companies are encouraging customers to stick with them by offering the "triple play" of TV, voice, and broadband. Cable stock prices have been pulled down sharply by the ability of old line phone companies to offer competing service. So Vonage may no longer have an easy leg up in taking customers from traditional land-line users.

Vonage is facing the classic problem of the small innovator. The market has been able to copy its services and bleed off its cash. The company may not be around in a year.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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Last updated: November 10, 2009: 01:53 PM

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