Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) is getting a boost today from other stocks in the industry, like Countrywide (NYSE: CFC), which reported a big Q3 loss this morning, but also said it expects its earnings per share in the fourth quarter to range between 25 cents and 75 cents. It also anticipates its return on equity for 2008 to range between 10 percent and 15 percent. This outlook is lifting the stock nearly 15%. Furthermore, Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) is reported to be considering replacing its troubled CEO and maybe even a takeover offer, which is pulling that stock and other financial interests higher as well. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on GS.Goldman has powered back from its 52-week low of $157.38 in August to a new high of $239.70 earlier this month. GS opened this morning at $232.86. So far today the stock has hit a low of $229.36 and a high of $233.50. As of 11:05, GS is trading at 231.45, up 4.79 (2.1%). The chart for GS looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a very positive 5 STARS (out of 5) strong buy rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a December bull-put credit spread below the $180 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 5.3% return in just 2 months as long as GS is above $180 at December expiration. Goldman would have to fall by more than 21% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
GS dipped below $180 in August but otherwise has not been below $180 since over a year ago and has shown support around $217 recently. This trade could be risky if the US economy does not rebound and the effects of the credit problems continue, but even if it happens, this position could be protected by strong support between $210 and $220.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in GS. CFC, or MER.
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