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China's continuing giga-GDP growth

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Wangfujing street in Beijing.In the weeks ahead, BloggingStocks will take an in-depth look at China's economic expansion, its impact on the global and U.S. economies, and also review a few stocks likely to benefit from China's development.

China's announcement that its economy grew at annualized rate of 11.5% in Q3 has done nothing to quell economists' concerns that its economy is growing too fast for both the betterment of its mainland citizens and international markets/commerce.

China's government points to a "successful" slowing of the economy in Q3 to 11.5% from 11.9%. But the minor GDP drop was not what economists were looking for. Economists would have rather seen a Q3 GDP growth rate of 8% or 9% -- i.e., a 15%-25% drop in the rate of growth as evidence of a slower economy. Further, little in China's Q3 report indicated that the country is correcting macroflaws in the economy -- namely, too much heavy industry, high energy use, and a dependence on export sales, to go along with another serious flaw: domestic underconsumption.

Regarding the latter, China has taken some measures to help its middle class expand, and domestic consumption is rising. But domestic consumption still is not large enough: China said domestic consumption has accounted for about 37% of economic gains so far in 2007, down from 39% in 2006. In other words, China is still not at a point where consumer spending can support its economy, and also stimulate growth in other countries through the purchase of foreign goods and services.

China has used an artificially weak currency, low labor costs, and business subsidization to increase the supply of cheap goods in the global economy, which has driven massive trade surpluses in the world's fourth-largest economy. To date, China has for the most part viewed the current economic setup as a condition with only benefits for China, and without liabilities. But that is decidedly not the case.

True, the current framework has helped China develop and the global economy expand, but rising protectionist sentiment in the U.S. and Europe (among other nations) stemming from massive trade imbalances is beginning to rear its head. Further, absent rising domestic consumption, China's economy stands to lose considerably if its export-driven revenue begins to decline.

Also, while Asia's dramatic development lessens the impact of a slowing U.S. economy on the region, there isn't enough evidence to suggest that China's economy could drive strong Asia-hemisphere growth, absent increased demand from China's residents.

With no change in the "trade status quo," the international community may very well be left with a slowing U.S. economy and a slowing Asian economy, to go along with a tepid European economy. And as any economist will tell you, sub-par growth in the world's three major regions does not exactly bode well for the global economy, which only underscores the requirement for China to increase domestic consumption, in the quarters and years ahead.

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 03:27 AM

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