TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says it's just hard to see how these firms can blame the consumer for their woes. Do people really stop spending on cable when they feel less rich? Even as oil prices -- at the pump -- are much lower than they had been? Even if they are not trying to sell their home?
Do people stop spending on expensive handbags? Is that what they do when they can't sell their home?
I have been pondering over and over the Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) (Cramer's Take) and Coach (NYSE: COH) (Cramer's Take) stories because those are the ones that broke out of the din of upside last week when they said things had broken down and they blamed the economy.
I thought that because in some ways Comcast and Coach have begun to have some competition that may better explain the weakness than the economy does. Comcast is up against a bunch of competing plans that I think require spending to stop or blunt, especially the Dish, which I love, and the Fios entry, which my sister loves.
I know, anecdotal, but whoever says "I love Comcast?" Comcast is a monopolist that has lost its monopoly and that means it isn't going to put on the same numbers even with a strong economy. I think the market agrees with me.
Coach rankles me, too. I am trying to figure out how its model has changed to perhaps making it less of an upscale choice than it has been. The company's product seems to be everywhere these days and it seems "footballed," a retail term for being discounted all over the place without any discipline.
These two companies' views resonated and disturbed the market last week, even as we heard about people paying record amounts for expensive cell phones and for high-end computer equipment.
I understand when a Whirlpool says things aren't selling well. I understand when a Home Depot says it. But I am having a hard time buying it when Comcast and Coach claim it.
I believe they are making excuses, and I believe it is business as usual for much of the consumer even as that seems preposterous given all that is going on in housing and in oil.
The consumer has rarely let us down as a "concept" for stocks in 25 years time.
Somehow, despite all the handwringing, I believe that this time will be no different.
Random musings: Just an observation, but WHO LIKED STAN O'NEAL? I have never met a guy who had fewer friends on the Street. Chuck Prince is a more beloved figure, and that's saying something.
RELATED LINKS:
Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in stocks mentioned.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
10-29-2007 @ 10:46AM
Jeff said...
does this article have a point?
10-29-2007 @ 12:29PM
Frank C said...
Great article James.Comcast has continued to raise it's rates while amassing huge profits.They are beginning to reap what they have sown and that is bad will between their customers and themselves.While crying to the local districts that controll pricing for their services,that they needed more money,they were offering to buy a Northeast company for 6 billion.If any company falls,I can't think of one that deserves it more.
10-30-2007 @ 6:31PM
CAROLINE said...
Why did Lew and Reed drop huge amounts of stock just before the announcement of earnings loss?
This bothers me and should bother all stockholders.
10-29-2007 @ 3:56PM
Tyrone said...
I do believe that coach can experience a loss because consumers dont have a need for a designer coach bag . If there was an unyielding desire for a designer bag it is to simple to get a knock off brand or buy a less expensive bag. With oil prices rising consistently and uncertainty in todays market the average high class consumer is going to be more frugal when it comes to their spending habits. I can agree with the comcast call because comcast has the market cornered in many parts of the south including many areas in Georgia. They constantly raise subsciption prices so they should not be experiencing any sharp profit decrease
10-29-2007 @ 7:22PM
Red Head said...
I wonder if the Coach stock holders realize that Coach has been banning customers from shopping in their stores for spending too much money? It sounds insane, but it is true. Check any one of the Purse Forums and this will be confirmed. I am one of the many that have been banned because I spent to much money and Coach said this showed a pattern that I may be re-selling. I can never shop in a Coach store again for the rest of my life, not even to buy a gift or something for my self. I am blackballed in their computer.
Consumers don't have a need for a designer handbag? This has got to be a man!
Sales for high end designer bags such as Louis Vuitton, Gucci, Chloe, Prada are steady, if not increased. Coach is not considered a designer bag. They can be bought anywhere, including a discount store and outlets. There is absolutely nothing special about them and that is why the sales are down.
As for the counterfeit comment, I would rather go without than carry a cheap, illegal counterfeit made in a sweat shop by a 5 yr old child forced to work for 12-16 hr days. Do you watch the news?
Women don't carry fakes because another women can spot a fake from across the room and it cheapens the women carrying the bag. They are not fooling anyone, we know the difference between a counterfeit copy and the authentic one. If you can't afford a designer bag than go to JC Penny and buy yourself a good leather bag for $60-$100. At least then you would not be making a fool of yourself & spitting in the face of the service men and women fighting for our Country! Yes, some of the counterfeit money is being channeled to fund terrorism.
1-14-2008 @ 9:10PM
Rachel said...
AMEN...I am also Banned from Coach for spending too much money. Since when does a company NOT want your money. This is money that they could depend on. I along with 2 of my friends have been BANNED from Coach for the rest of our life also. I have a letter from the Coach Inc company that says this exact same thing. Hard to believe and they wonder why their stock is FALLING!!!
10-29-2007 @ 7:52PM
Thelma said...
Buying purses made by Child labor in China is not my bag!
Also a company who bans customers and their entire families for life for buying TOO MUCH at their stores has turned off many on Coach products.
10-29-2007 @ 9:12PM
jay said...
COMCAST IS A CASH COW. BUT THE COW IS BEING SUCK DRY BY THE ROBERTS AND THE OTHER BLOOD SUCKING PEST IN MANAGEMENT. COMCAST INVESTORS ARE LIKE A BUNCH OF FARMERS WHO BUY HENS THAT EAT LIKE A COW BUT DON'T LAY ANY EGGS. WHO THE FUCK WANT THOSE HENS? BY THE WAY I AM A COMCAST INVESTOR....HERE THIS COMCAST WHERE IS THE BEEF. THROW US A BONE AT LEAST...............
10-29-2007 @ 11:57PM
jay said...
REGARDING INSIDER TRADING. I THINK THERE SHOULD BE A LAW THAT PROHIBITS SELLING STOCKS BY INSIDER WITHIN A PERIOD OF LET'S SAY AT LEAST TWO WEEKS OR MORE OF A PENDING ANNOUNCMENT OF A COMPANY'S EARNINGS BY EXECUTIVES OF THAT COMPANY ESPECIALLY THOSE WHO HAVE ACCESS TO FINANCIALS.
10-31-2007 @ 8:58PM
jay said...
IN ORDER FOR COMCAST TO RECOVER AND PROVE TO EVERYONE THAT COMCAST IS A COMPANY THAT MEANS BUSINESS THEY SHOULD DO TWO THINGS:
1- TO START PAYING QUARTERLY DIVIDEND. IF NOT AT LEAST AN ANNUAL DISTRIBUTIONOF A PERCENTAGE OF PROFITS.
2- TO START PAYING OFF DEBIT INHIRITED FROM GOOD OLD AT&T. IF NOT START BUYING BACK SHARES TO ABSORB THE SLACK WHICH IS CREATED BY THOSE INSIDER TRADERS AND OPTIONS HOLDER.... IF COMCAST WANTS TO TALK TO ME PLEASE DO ......
10-29-2007 @ 10:32PM
Carletti said...
I think there are better opportunities than Comcast, but Coach will remain a profitable entity if it continues to correctly promote its prized name, no matter the condition of the U.S./world economy, in my view.
Coach already has a market: the high-net-worth. And chances stand favorable that anything short of the great depression part deux will not yield a short market for Coach products amongst at least Coach's target market.
10-29-2007 @ 11:16PM
ihateshopping said...
I can't speak to Coach as I don't own any of their incredibly high-priced not to mention kind of ugly bags, but I am a long-time Comcast subscriber.
In a word, the service stinks. Not a day goes by when one or more channels are not working properly. They claim 100+ [or whatever the number is] but over half of the so-called channels are crap: shopping, obscure sports, Spanish [don't they have a way to convert from English instead of eating up channels with Spanish-only channels?] and way, way too many channels that use paid programs to fill up the 24-hr. programming.
Prices for Comcast have skyrocketed the past few years, well past the inflation factor. They certainly aren't putting their additional profits into regular cable; perhaps it's going to the "new" HD technology?
I'm sure it's no coincidence that since Comcast first announced the debut of their HD cable, "regular" cable service quality has decreased proportionately. When you call with a service problem, they hint that HD service is "better" (why would I upgrade to anything they are selling if what I have today doesn't work properly?). Choice #2, they blame the convertor box (I've had the same box for years so obviously it's not the problem). Choice #3, they blame the company who delivers the signal (I'm paying Comcast for this, not each signal provider; just fix it, Comcast). Comcast accepts zero responsibility for service issues. (Could Comcast secretly be run by AOL; this is their MO also?) Talk about a racket!
I'm most curious about Comcast and their pricing policies. I live in a Boston suburb. Comcast rates in Boston proper are much less and Boston has access to more channels than my town. Is it just that the City of Boston cut a better deal with Comcast? If costs are skyrocketing as Comcast alleges, why aren't the rates more or less uniform throughout the entire country or at least within reasonably close geographical areas?
I also do not understand why cable companies are allowed excessive double and triple dipping. I pay for cable. Advertisers pay for [annoying] ads (double dipping), paid programming runs amuk (triple dipping). I'm paying for 24-hour cable service. I view that as actual programs (I don't count shopping channels or paid programming as "real" programs). It is not uncommon during the wee hours of the AM to not be able to find more than 10 channels with "real" programs. Even some of the ala carte [Cinemax, etc] premium channels don't run 24X7. The so-called 24-hour news channels, and even The Weather Channel, run a lot of repeats. I must be missing something; what's wrong with this picture? Not what I'd call a "value-added" service.
In one respect I can see a family doing some cost cutting by removing pricey multiple convertor boxes and remote control for extra box(es). I did just that last year. However, if household belts are being tightened, folks might opt to stay home a little more & watch TV vs going out to, say, a movie and dinner.