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Fed meets: Do more rate cuts equal $100 oil? APC & AAUK up up and away

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The Federal Reserve Board is meeting Tuesday and Wednesday and all eyes will be looking for a rate cut and some clue as to their future bias. When I say all eyes, I mean all eyes; Wall Street, large and small investors, mortgage lenders, big banks, mortgage holders, buyers of our Treasury notes, foreign bankers and foreign treasuries, currency traders - you name it, they're watching!

Crude Oil Rises to Record Above $93 as Mexico Idles Production and could reach $100 a barrel before too long if global events like war, weather, and a weak dollar continue to remain in the headlines. You have heard the term petro-dollars: this is a factor in rising prices. If oil is paid for in dollars and the dollar falls in value compared to other currencies, then it seems only natural that as the value of the dollar falls oil rises. This happens as the oil exporting nations try and maintain a globally stable price. A weaker dollar increases the price of oil for Americans but not so for Europeans. They can exchange their strong Euros for dollars and might even be buying oil at a discount.

This may make pump prices in Europe relative to ours more stable, but it has foreign corporations and Goverenment Treasuries up in arms because they don't want to see their balance of trade and global competitveness negatively affected. The IMF raised concerns last week as did I in Bush administration pushing dollar down or allowing it to fall? IMF chief sounds alarm followed up by my concern that our government does not seem to be concerned in: Is Bush giving the country away without knowing it? It may be advantageous to those at the top of the food chain, but what of the people who are not in the stock market and have to put a higher percentage of their (strained) income into energy costs for gas, and food costs for higher milk, sugar, and other staples?


In August our editors asked us to pick a few stocks we thought would be good places to run in times of a stressed market and I posted Volatile Markets: Anadarko Petroleum (APC) has valuable fuel reserves. When I first recommended Anandarko Petroleum Company (NYSE: APC) earlier in the year it was $40 a share. At the time of the August re-emphasis it was $47.14. Today as I write it is trading around $60 a share. Up 50% in less than a year for what is still a low P/E stock (12.15) paying a dividend with proven reserves in North America! If the Fed cuts rates and oil goes up again, will it be any surprise if APC follows suit?

Another of my favorite stocks that I recommended way back when -- and seems like a good place to hide (i.e.: Invest for the long term) -- can be found here in my post Chasing Value: Anglo American - Inflation hedge & more: Anglo American plc with Anglo American plc (ADR) (NASDAQ: AAUK). In March I raised the very same issues of commodity pricing and safe havens. It was then trading at under $25 per share and today trading at $34.80 up about 40%.

I remain concerned about the Fed trashing the dollar by lowering interest rates further. Wall Street and the banks have received enough of a bail-out over the last two months as evidenced by the overall stock gains. One hundred dollar oil? I don't know. However, I own both APC and AAUK and will be prepared for any eventuality -- I hope.

To find potential opportunities and verify my track record, read Chasing Value or Serious Money.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 06:54 PM

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