It's beginning to look like the Federal Reserve has lost its independence. However, rather than taking dictation from the White House, it appears to be under Wall Street's control.
Bloomberg News reports that the Fed is likely to cut interest rates when it meets this week. Traders in federal funds futures initially gave a 75% chance of a rate cut on October 31, but scaled back those odds to 50% after the October 5 revision of August payroll numbers to show a gain instead of a decline.
The reason the Fed stated for its September 18 50-basis-point cut made little sense to me -- some words about market turbulence. The market turbulence is real enough -- related to the subprime mortgage mess -- about which I posted here. But the Fed's job is to keep inflation in check -- and with oil prices hitting a record $93 a barrel and labor rates rising at a 4.9% annual rate -- it is surely failing at that job. (Save me the blather about core inflation -- and excluding energy and food prices.)
However, Bernanke is responding dutifully to his Wall Street masters -- using the interest rate cuts to ladle a heaping dollop of corporate welfare onto the gilt-edged plates of billionaire bankers and hedge fund grandees.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
10-29-2007 @ 5:42PM
fairmill said...
please allow the investers a chance to make a buck.
the building contractors sure made some
10-29-2007 @ 7:03PM
W. B. Wilhite said...
Falling rates will allow people to refinance their bad loans. That will help stave off a housing depression. Possibly, the Federal Guv'ment will step in around mid-summer 2008 will guarantees to assist this process. Shortly after the election, the sh!t will hit the fan. Rates will rise dramatically to combat inflation. The economy will collapse into the worst recession since Harding. Or maybe not.
10-29-2007 @ 7:56PM
jerry said...
The Fed will do what is right ,17 rate hikes were over done .The real Fed funds rate should be 100 bases points lower.This will insure recession will not take over and stimulate the retail season coming up.
10-29-2007 @ 10:49PM
Dennis said...
too bad that people aren't smart enough to understand their mortgage documentation and lenders are so greedy with the closing costs, etc. on subprime stuff.....look at Countrywide....lay offs, biggest quarter loss ever and they're offering the highest rate in the country at 5.65% CD money at their bank...although FDIC insured, I wouldn't touch that one with a ten foot pole.....fed needs to raise rates.....not bail out people with bad credit to begin with..!
10-30-2007 @ 4:41AM
lordvesey1 said...
since when has housing been considered a productive asset? the media seems to forget that every dollar NOT spent on speculative condos in phoenix or las vegas goes into equities and other more productive assets. furthermore, for people who truly need housing (as opposed to the speculators), a correction in prices to more realistic levels will enable them to buy. ben, please dont create another bubble. im afraid the next one may be our last before the world investing community bails on us.
10-30-2007 @ 11:23AM
Jjjaaazzzyyyy said...
The reserve is between a rock and a hard place. If they don't lower rates there will be more trouble for housing and companies and stocks associated with mortgages. If they do lower rates the dollar will drop and foreign investors might pull out of US investments, and US investors might move their money to foreign investments. No matter what they do our economy is going to feel these problems one way or another. Everyone wants to avoid the pain, but some things are just inevitable. If it's going to happen then maybe we should get it over with.
10-31-2007 @ 9:47AM
chet said...
You took out a bad mortgage? Tough. Did you attend the Public Education system. You must have if you can't do simple math. The buck is and has been tanking and Ben will make it worse. Then nothing will help. The market is a speculative investment. If you don't understand it don't play. But not to worry. The goverment will have the uneducated taxpayer bail the idiots out and it won't cost us anything. Right???
10-31-2007 @ 9:55AM
Jjjaaazzzyyyy said...
They are not doing it to bail out the uneducated home buyers they are lowering rates to help the investors with investments tied to mortgage backed securities. They are lowering rates to stimulate wallstreet and it's mergers and buy outs. Also, they are helping the housing industry and speculators. They are bailing out people who are very well educated and many are rich. Most people posting here didn't take out any bad mortgages.
10-31-2007 @ 11:50AM
connbkrts said...
Ben Bernanke will go down in history as the G. William Miller of 2007-2008. The only way to control inflation is to slow down the economy. It's painful, but it's even more painful if you give in to clamoring for cheap money. Then you need someone like Paul Volker to bring things under control.
Housing prices must come down; that's what happens when a bubble pops. Inflated values on CDO's must be written down to reality. We are now going to have to pay for 5 years of artificially low interest rates and borderline criminal lending practices. There's no way out. Either face the music now, or try to prop the house of cards up a little longer with more cheap money and make it all the worse.
11-01-2007 @ 3:54PM
d4307 said...
Since when is it the responsibility of the government to reward stupidity. I'm retired and all my money is in sterile guaranteed money.
They keep lowering interest rates at my expense, since my income is interest dependent. These attempts to protect the money in the stock market will be unsuccessful in the long run. The American economy is dependent on plastic money, and that is going to run out - then what?
11-03-2007 @ 4:13PM
tshee said...
lost the house the wife the job's.
Please lord put your hand on cheny and the other guy!