TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the price of no more rate cuts from the Fed would be foreclosures. Lots of them. Have you noticed that MBIA (NYSE: MBI) (Cramer's Take) and Ambac Financial (NYSE: ABK) (Cramer's Take) are just being crushed today?
More important, has the Fed noticed?
Lots of people have asked me where I came up with the $500 billion loss number I've been mentioning. Here's the deal: A large group of people, 50% of the 14 million homebuyers, are going to default on their "2 and 28" adjusted-rate mortgages now that they are being reset. Many of these people paid for the 2% with home equity loans that they can't pay back.
Think of those millions of no-money-down ads. Those worked! These people can't pay now that the resets are in the house. Others, allegedly AAA borrowers, will find themselves defaulting, and the insurance won't be paid. That's horrible, but that's what the stocks are saying.
I am just hoping that things stop at $500 billion. The only hope is 2%-3% refinancing, which can be had if the Fed cuts rates to 3%. Otherwise we have $500 billion in losses.
Now, understand, that will not be catastrophic. Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) (Cramer's Take) doesn't make it, Ambac Financial, PMI Group (NYSE: PMI) (Cramer's Take), MGIC Investment (NYSE: MTG) (Cramer's Take) and MBIA don't make it, and Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) gets killed. Countrywide (NYSE: CFC) (Cramer's Take) goes belly-up. Maybe Wachovia (NYSE: WB) (Cramer's Take) gets really hurt and Merrill still more.
That's it.
Except for one element: foreclosures. That's the cost of no rate cuts.
Foreclosures.
If the country can handle 7 million homeowners losing their homes, then this situation is going to be shrugged off, the balance sheets cleaned up, and we are off to the races again.
I believe the Fed kind of gets this Armageddon for homeowners of the 2005-07 vintage. Remember, despite misstatements to the contrary, my "rant" in August on CNBC was about the 7 million homeowners who are soon to be renters.
I believe that's what's going to happen, regardless of the Fed. But aggressive cutting could spare those who are reset from the beginning of 2007.
Why aren't I more concerned? Because of the monster rally we had after the country wiped out the S&L industry.
It will happen again because of a Fed ease. But not fast enough for the poor people who took no money down and the people in areas like the Inland Empire in California, where I think there will be a total wipeout.
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Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
10-30-2007 @ 8:37AM
Nancy said...
Hey, I thought this was a "free market" system. Not a system where government bails out greedy banks, lenders and people!
10-30-2007 @ 8:44AM
Harold said...
Here comes the Fed to rescue American business...
The dollar is the weakest in decades, significant credit problems are bombing major banks, oil is around $93 predicting a major gasoline price increase soon, home foreclosure numbers are bad and growing, housing is literally frozen and falling, grocery and energy prices are soaring with electricity and natural gas expected to go up 15-20% this winter, the huge illegal alien problem remains, medical costs are jumping, and manufacturing jobs continue to go overseas...and we have a $12 BILLION A MONTH war we can't seem to win.
10-30-2007 @ 8:46AM
Tom said...
It is interesting how business HATES government BUT runs to it quickly for money and bail outs whenever business screws up!
10-30-2007 @ 8:58AM
tony margani said...
http://www.openenergycorp.com/news/video/NHF45493_01.wmv
10-30-2007 @ 9:10AM
Chris said...
That funny Cramer, because mortgage interest rates have gone UP since the last fed cut. This is about risk takers getting a bailout, not helping the little guy from staving off forclosure. Where was everyone's concern for the "little guy" when the borkers and banks were willing to give hundreds of thousands of dollars in ARMs to people with no income documentation?
10-30-2007 @ 9:17AM
john said...
Cramer can be fun. But, when was the last time he or any of the other yahoos worried about the dollar or inflation? Sadly, the party that went on for the last five years, is over and the clean-up must begin. Those of us who acted responsibly and saved and invested rather than borrowed and spent, deserve the bargains that will now come. You want to know why I didn't buy a condo? Because they were overpriced. God help us if the messege we're left with is; 'only suckers save and think about paying for what we buy.' John
10-30-2007 @ 9:23AM
trudy self said...
I see Cramer like so many others has just not done his research on the Inland Empire--Many of those who live here do not work here-- they work in higher paying LA and Orange counties which substantially changes the affordability ratios. What will wipe out the Inland Empire is a widespread loss of jobs- not mortgage resets.
10-30-2007 @ 9:23AM
Suzanne said...
Jim, how much of the 500 billion has already taken place?
10-30-2007 @ 10:01AM
joe n said...
I am having a hard time understanding the significant losses from the sub prime collapse. If a person had a $100,000 house and got a 95% loan then defaulted, the lender should be able to sell the house quickly for $95,000. The costs to the bank would be foreclosure expenses--which whould be about $5000. Where are all the losses?
Thanks,
JOE
10-30-2007 @ 10:04AM
Jjjaaazzzyyyy said...
Seems like it's a catch 22 to me. If they don't lower the rates, foreclosures and companies invested in these mortgages will suffer. If they do lower rates the dollar will drop further and foreign investors will put out of US market. Just seems like this will be troublesome times no matter what decision they make.
10-30-2007 @ 11:19AM
SKM said...
The Fed is there to protect the dollar and fight inflation and not to protect the stupid bankers and mortgage lenders who should have known better.
10-30-2007 @ 11:28AM
sliber said...
7 millions defaults = 12% of all US homes! ???
10-30-2007 @ 12:29PM
rockmediate said...
You know Im so tired of hearing about all these poor people. Subprime or A rating if you can't afford it you can't period. They were trying to keep up with the next door neighbor i.e. who had the largest home and they got over extended. Noone put a gun to their head and everyone has 3 days right to change their mind(hire an attorney/cpa to review the contract ) if they have any doubt's about the loan. Gov. has to stop bailing out the idiot's Im tired of it and looking now for the good deals to start happening in San Diego.
Thank you the Jones's you are making me rich. Btw just put an offer on a condo sold for $265,000 in 2005 offered $125,000.
10-30-2007 @ 1:48PM
thec2u said...
In the natural course of the economic cycle there is what is known as correction. Housing prices went through the roof and the regulators were asleep at the wheel by keeping interest rates super low too long and allowing people with no money and bad credit to buy homes that they cannot afford to begin with. Housing prices must fall or the dollar will keep losing value. Plain and simple.
10-30-2007 @ 2:16PM
Charley said...
I worked as a lawyer on Wall Street for thirty-five years. It's amazing how once risk-oriented traders and investors have now come to expect bailouts in the form of government-spawned easy money whenever trouble looms in the marketplace. They want to speculate freely, but with a government put attached to place a floor under losses. Mr. Cramer's professed concerns for mortgage borrowers lacks credibility. This is all about Wall Street, where many won't be satisfied until interest rates are basically zeroed-out, permitting asset value inflation to continue. As someone who worked and invested so I could spend my retirement years clipping coupons on Government securities, this is bad news.
I do agree with Mr. Cramer on one item. There will be a real estate implosion in the Inland Empire (and also the neighboring Coachella Valley, where I've now retired to). The area has been grossly over-developed, and will pay a heavy price, no matter what happens to interest rates or even the Southern California economy.
10-30-2007 @ 2:50PM
Sheldon L said...
Cramer has his data wrong and his Wall St. bail is wrong - and he is wrong about forclosures too.
Hey Ben - Leave the rates alone and don't worry about foreclosures!
http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/10/30/hey-ben-leave-the-rates-alone-and-dont-worry-about-foreclosur/
10-30-2007 @ 3:59PM
Matthew M. said...
Cramer here is the problem, if the feds cut the rates, then it may give some relief with the housing issues. But in the same time gas will be so expensive so that families that were able to keep their houses will freeze because they cant afford the heating oil and they wont be able to cook on their gas stoves. Also then families will have problems with driving to work because gas will be hitting $4-$5 a gallon. This will aslo bring food prices up. If anything the fed should do a rate increase to save our plunging dollar, bring down oil prices out of the atmosphere and let buisness deal with their mistakes. They saw easy money with these loans but they are now paying for it in their bank accounts. We must take care of the many in the country rather than the few.
10-30-2007 @ 4:16PM
digginestdogg said...
Cramer is not telling the truth about his motivations. He doesn't give a rat's tail about foreclosures or homeowners. He is worried about his hedge fund buddies who are getting margin calls on their short-sale stocks they backed with CDOs (which plummeted in value due to the sub-prime panic) and are being forced to either cover their positions a ta loss or sell their long holdings to raise cash. A lot of them took big risks and may go under. And that's as it should be. But that's who and what he cares about. Fess up Cramer.
10-30-2007 @ 5:10PM
william lindblad said...
Rate cut or not rate cut - it does not matter. No matter what is done the foreclosures will continue. The Fed does not have a magic wand and Bernanke is not Harry Potter. An abundance of cheap money, greed and stupidity is now showing it's downside. Although the media tends to both show and blame the little people at the bottom, they, and their defaults have always been around. They have never caused a problem on this scale. They also do not qualify for 1/2 million and up properties, even at 1% interest. Common sense states that more than half of the defaults are people with resources that should have known better. Jim, you are a finance pundit. If I buy 50,000 shares @ 5.00 and it goes to 2.00 - will the Fed pick up the loss? Does the IRS let me write off 150,000 as a capital loss?
We both know the answer is a big fat NO. Why is housing different? There is no double standard and the investor has to eat the loss.
A rate cut will encourage inflation, push the consumer further and pressure our trading partners using other currencies. It will in fact, cause more default.
10-30-2007 @ 5:19PM
Mike Zapien said...
What is wrong with this country? We are a free enterprise society (at least this is what I thought we were) why are bailing out the over extending home purchasers and the greed from the banking community? Our government once again disappoints the people who make the U.S. a strong and viable country. Our government has no fiscal responsibility to its patrons. No other words can make me express how disappointed I am with our bailout practices, no wonder our standards of living are going into the toilet let alone the middle class.