Exclusive: Rock Band Unplugged Track List

AOL Money & Finance

Cramer on BloggingStocks: No rate cut? No relief

More

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the price of no more rate cuts from the Fed would be foreclosures. Lots of them.

Have you noticed that MBIA (NYSE: MBI) (Cramer's Take) and Ambac Financial (NYSE: ABK) (Cramer's Take) are just being crushed today?

More important, has the Fed noticed?

Lots of people have asked me where I came up with the $500 billion loss number I've been mentioning. Here's the deal: A large group of people, 50% of the 14 million homebuyers, are going to default on their "2 and 28" adjusted-rate mortgages now that they are being reset. Many of these people paid for the 2% with home equity loans that they can't pay back.

Think of those millions of no-money-down ads. Those worked! These people can't pay now that the resets are in the house. Others, allegedly AAA borrowers, will find themselves defaulting, and the insurance won't be paid. That's horrible, but that's what the stocks are saying.


I am just hoping that things stop at $500 billion. The only hope is 2%-3% refinancing, which can be had if the Fed cuts rates to 3%. Otherwise we have $500 billion in losses.

Now, understand, that will not be catastrophic. Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) (Cramer's Take) doesn't make it, Ambac Financial, PMI Group (NYSE: PMI) (Cramer's Take), MGIC Investment (NYSE: MTG) (Cramer's Take) and MBIA don't make it, and Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) gets killed. Countrywide (NYSE: CFC) (Cramer's Take) goes belly-up. Maybe Wachovia (NYSE: WB) (Cramer's Take) gets really hurt and Merrill still more.

That's it.

Except for one element: foreclosures. That's the cost of no rate cuts.

Foreclosures.

If the country can handle 7 million homeowners losing their homes, then this situation is going to be shrugged off, the balance sheets cleaned up, and we are off to the races again.

I believe the Fed kind of gets this Armageddon for homeowners of the 2005-07 vintage. Remember, despite misstatements to the contrary, my "rant" in August on CNBC was about the 7 million homeowners who are soon to be renters.

I believe that's what's going to happen, regardless of the Fed. But aggressive cutting could spare those who are reset from the beginning of 2007.

Why aren't I more concerned? Because of the monster rally we had after the country wiped out the S&L industry.

It will happen again because of a Fed ease. But not fast enough for the poor people who took no money down and the people in areas like the Inland Empire in California, where I think there will be a total wipeout.


Related Stories:
Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO.

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-223.328,280.74
NASDAQ-49.201,796.52
S&P 500-26.91896.42

Last updated: July 05, 2009: 04:45 PM

BloggingStocks Exclusives

Hot Stocks

DailyFinance Headlines

Latest from BloggingBuyouts

TheFlyOnTheWall.com Headlines

BioHealth Investor Headlines

WalletPop Headlines

My Portfolios

Track your stocks here!

Find out why more people track their portfolios on AOL Money & Finance then anywhere else.

BloggingStocks Partners

More from AOL Money & Finance

WalletPop Headlines