International investing: Go long Israel, short Ehud Olmert

Well, the speculation (finally) turned into a news story: Israel's prime minister, Ehud Olmert, announced yesterday that he's fighting prostate cancer.

Whether the market agrees or not with Olmert's Kadima government politics, the Tel Aviv stock market was spooked yesterday at the premonition that something was wrong, really wrong with Olmert. Rumors arose that he was suffering from an advanced neurological disorder that would prevent him from continuing in office.

I could almost hear Benjamin Netanyahu buttoning-up to come in off the bench.

In spite of the ongoing instability in the Israeli government, the Israeli economy and stock market continues to smoke. The Israeli shekel has appreciated strongly versus the dollar (8.5% since August alone) and the country has seemed to rein in inflation (1.5% over 12 months). Export growth has moderated somewhat, but should still put in a strong showing at somewhere between 9% and 10%. GDP growth probably will check in around 5% this year. Check out what Bank of Israel governor (and previous vice chairman of Citigroup) Stanley Fischer had to say earlier this year about Israel's macroeconomic strength.

Israel's economy from a macro perspective is interesting. But as a whole, there are other economies with higher GDP growth. What makes Israel really interesting is its technology export industry. After the United States, Israel has the most number of companies listed on the NASDAQ. Recent high-fliers like Zoran Corp. (NASDAQ: ZRAN) and Ceragon (NASDAQ: CRNT) make for some interesting investment opportunities in small cap and mid cap companies.

I like to think of investing in some of the smaller Israeli companies as late-stage venture investing. Home runs are certainly possible; you just need to do the work.

Stay tuned.