It is getting harder to find new oil reserves and demand is growing. That seems to be old news, but industry experts are only now beginning to form a consensus that oil prices could go well over $100 a barrel [subscription required].

According to The Wall Street Journal, "Sadad I. Al-Husseini, an oil consultant and former executive at Aramco, Saudi Arabia's national oil company, gave a particularly chilling assessment of the world's oil outlook. The major oil-producing nations, he said, are inflating their oil reserves by as much as 300 billion barrels." Some of this is crude found in places where it cannot be recovered.

Current oil fields are aging. Many have been in production for several decades. It is unclear that they can continue to produce oil for decades to come. In addition, governments in major oil-producing countries such as Nigeria and Venezuela are unstable. And the Middle East seems to have a new political crisis each month.

If oil moves well above $100, it could cripple the economy in the US and devastate the economy in China. The costs of transportation and of goods using petroleum-based chemicals would skyrocket.

A sharp and permanent increase in oil prices may bring global economic growth to a halt.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.