The Federal Reserve has lost its moorings. That's because it used to stand for keeping inflation low. In September it cut rates 50 basis points because of vague fears of a recession -- that's negative GDP growth. Today, however, the Commerce Department reports that GDP grew 3.9% in the third quarter -- the fastest in 1.5 years.
Yet the market is pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut to be announced this afternoon. As I noted earlier this week, inflation is rampant with oil hitting an all-time high and labor costs growing at a 4.9% annual rate. This inflation, coupled with the booming economy, would suggest that the Fed should raise, rather than cut, rates.
But I believe that the market is now dictating what the Fed should do and the Fed seems too intimidated by the reaction of the stock market to do its job of fighting inflation. So we can expect to listen to Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson talk about a strong dollar, even as it keeps hitting all-time lows.
A rate cut today will send that dollar even lower, making it hard for foreign investors to justify holding on to such a low-yielding currency.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
10-31-2007 @ 11:47AM
Harrison said...
Look at this picture. A home owner takes out an equity loan on his home at 5%. Greenspan kept raising the rates where this loan became 8 or 9% without the bank doing anything but sit back and take the increased %. All they did with this extra money was take over other banks or build new banks a couple of miles apart. After all the damage was done they act like a GOD in lowering the rate. They cause the problem and then scare us with the same thing as Bush does. Fear of something else to act like they're doing us a big favor. The FED IS NOT YOUR FRIEND.
10-31-2007 @ 11:47AM
canadadodo said...
Sure wages are up 4.9%- minimum wage went up and will go up again next year and again the following year. The government voted a pay raise for themselves with this move. Since people will be making more money- they will pay more taxes. I did not see where the IRS made major changes to the tax brackets. How about that!!
Gas and other commondities continue to rise as well- everytime the minimum wages goes up inflation follows. Look at the cost of living in the states that were already above the federal guidelines. Wow, if 29% over- cost of living 29% above national average!!!
Peter Cohan get real. What do you think the average American buys? Gas and groceries! If the rate is not reduced investors lose $$$, the last time I looked most people don't work for poor people.
10-31-2007 @ 11:59AM
Mort said...
Here are the FACTS and they aren't pretty:
The dollar is the weakest in decades, significant credit problems are bombing major banks, oil is over $90 predicting a major gasoline price increase soon, home foreclosure numbers are bad and growing, housing is literally frozen and falling, grocery and energy prices are soaring with electricity and natural gas expected to go up 15-20% this winter, the huge illegal alien problem remains, medical costs are jumping, and manufacturing jobs continue to go overseas...
and we have a $12 BILLION A MONTH war full of corruption that we can't control or can't seem to win!
10-31-2007 @ 12:06PM
Sheldon L said...
The Fed should not cut rates. If they were going to, and just waiting to see the GDP figures this morning before they make their final decision then they will not....and if they do anyway, that would be big a mistake.
10-31-2007 @ 1:02PM
Carlos R. Aevizu Sr said...
The Federal Reserve is suppose to be on guard about inflation, however moderate inflation in the case of a recession (lack of growth in the GDP) is more of a problem, if people can not afford to drive or eat.
Part of the problem with economy in the toilet, so to speak, is primarily caused by the federal reserve not acting soon enough to lower short term interest rates two quarter's ago.
The Real Estate market is the key. In 2004, the Feds started it's quest to slow do the economy by raisng short term interest rates by .25% for a consecutive 17 months to slow down a feverish pace of appreciation in the real estate market, which was the right thing to do.
As the real estate market started to slide, sub prime lenders fueled by wall street kept dishing out
mortgages without regard to the consumers or their investors.
SO how do you fix the problem, enough of the blame game. Lower the Fed Funds rate by another .25% to .50% basis points, spark the economy. Increase the Conforming Loan Limits in high Cost Areas, such as California and other states, to allow the real estate market to come to grips with itself.
The real estate market is the key to the economy. What we don't need is a financial disater that happened to the real estate market of the 90's, in which the federal government contracted with the Resolution Trust Corp. to flood the market with Bank owned properties (REO's) at massive discounts, bring the economy down. The last one lasted almost 6 years.
Real estate affects every walk of life. Nails, lumber, paint, chemicals, manufaturing, appliances, carpet manufacturing, roofing, hardware stores, service trade contractors, plumbers, carpenters, electricians, etc.
And more. Restaurants, Car dealers, Insurance Companies, Mortgage Companies, Real Estate Companies, Car Dealerships, Consumer Finance, Banks, Beauty Salons, Barber Shops, Magazine Companies, Printing Companies, these are just to name a few. Even Wall street is affected.
The Economy grew, because of low interest rates. Real estate is the American dream. Mr. Greenspan was right on in the 90's to create wealth, the economy needs to be health, The value is in peoples, their homes. There were more entrepenures born when the real estate market flurished than any other time in history.
The Federal Reserve needs to lower the fed dunds rate sufficient to keep the economy growing. The Federal government also must act quickly to raise the conforming loan limits in high cost areas.
Carlos R. Arvizu Sr.
10-31-2007 @ 4:44PM
Carlos R. Aevizu Sr said...
The Federal Reserve is suppose to be on guard about inflation, however moderate inflation in the case of a recession (lack of growth in the GDP) is more of a problem, if people can not afford to drive or eat.
Part of the problem with economy in the toilet, so to speak, is primarily caused by the federal reserve not acting soon enough to lower short term interest rates two quarter's ago.
The Real Estate market is the key. In 2004, the Feds started it's quest to slow do the economy by raisng short term interest rates by .25% for a consecutive 17 months to slow down a feverish pace of appreciation in the real estate market, which was the right thing to do.
As the real estate market started to slide, sub prime lenders fueled by wall street kept dishing out
mortgages without regard to the consumers or their investors.
SO how do you fix the problem, enough of the blame game. Lower the Fed Funds rate by another .25% to .50% basis points, spark the economy. Increase the Conforming Loan Limits in high Cost Areas, such as California and other states, to allow the real estate market to come to grips with itself.
The real estate market is the key to the economy. What we don't need is a financial disater that happened to the real estate market of the 90's, in which the federal government contracted with the Resolution Trust Corp. to flood the market with Bank owned properties (REO's) at massive discounts, bring the economy down. The last one lasted almost 6 years.
Real estate affects every walk of life. Nails, lumber, paint, chemicals, manufaturing, appliances, carpet manufacturing, roofing, hardware stores, service trade contractors, plumbers, carpenters, electricians, etc.
And more. Restaurants, Car dealers, Insurance Companies, Mortgage Companies, Real Estate Companies, Car Dealerships, Consumer Finance, Banks, Beauty Salons, Barber Shops, Magazine Companies, Printing Companies, these are just to name a few. Even Wall street is affected.
The Economy grew, because of low interest rates. Real estate is the American dream. Mr. Greenspan was right on in the 90's to create wealth, the economy needs to be health, The value is in peoples, their homes. There were more entrepenures born when the real estate market flurished than any other time in history.
The Federal Reserve needs to lower the fed dunds rate sufficient to keep the economy growing. The Federal government also must act quickly to raise the conforming loan limits in high cost areas.
Carlos R. Arvizu Sr.
TheDon1950@aol.com