Greed is alive and well on Wall Street and traders sent that message loud and clear back to the Federal Reserve Board and Chairman Bernanke today, by sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 362 points, or 2.6%. In a straightforward Dow dropping, but not jaw dropping retort of "What have you done for us lately"? Apparently cutting rates by a half point last month and another quarter point yesterday to 4.5% was not enough.
The suggestion by Bernanke that the Fed might be done cutting and have an inflation- and dollar-protecting bias in the future was not well-received. Add to that Exxon Mobile (NYSE: XOM)'s untimely and unwelcome poorer than expected earnings report and you have the makings for some fear being stirred into the investment cauldron just one day after Halloween.
Seems like more than one immature and impatient trader doing his best impression of Charlie Brown last night felt they got a rock in his treat bag -- and when the traders got back to their desks this morning they were still reflecting on that rock when the markets started to fall like one. The only thing that seemed to bring the slide to an end was perhaps when the closing bell rang, forcing everyone to take their sad faces home.
Oil prices were up today again, no surprise to me, and analysts started to treat oil futures like momentum stocks one-upping each other with predictions (big fat guesses) about how high it will go. The truth - nobody knows!
Some things that seemed relatively benign today, taking the storm in stride, were defense stocks, utilities, health care and of course Mr. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A). Most were down marginally, BRK.A less than 1%, swaying a little but nothing to fret about. Also holding its own was Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), losing 0.54%, basically nothing. Some of these were even trading up mid-day. Today is just one more example of why long-term thinking pays off - in the long term, today is just a weather report or sports score, meaningless over time.
To find potential opportunities and verify my track record, read Chasing Value or Serious Money.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
11-01-2007 @ 9:36PM
Mr. noitall said...
Just remember that long term thinking doesn't include looking in the rear view mirror. Don't buy into the theories that say "over the long term the stock market always goes up, and real estate always recovers in a few years." I see the world changing in a dramatic way.
11-02-2007 @ 7:01AM
steve said...
I have never seen so many bad things going on all at the same time. We will pay over $4.00 per gal very soon. The housing problem, big banks lost big bucks, so many foreclosures, major layoffs, the credit problem, large hits in the market, lost profit earnings and many more. This thing looks more like a (d) is coming. Every time there is a rate cut, it brings down the dollar. It helps, but it also hurts. The Fed can only do so much. They pumped big bucks into the market but did it help, no. This oil thing is going to put us way under. It is going to kill us. And when I say us I mean the U.S. This is my number one concern right now. I'm a small business owner and we are the ones who feel it first and have known months ago that things were not good. Consumer and business spending is way down and has been for a long time. Everyone is watching their pennys. Money is tight. I hope things get better.
11-02-2007 @ 7:34AM
Harry said...
Why this market remains up so high has me perplexed. Look at the FACTS:
The dollar is the weakest in decades, significant credit problems are bombing major banks, oil is way over $90 predicting a major gasoline price increase soon, home foreclosure numbers are bad and growing, housing is literally frozen and falling, grocery and energy prices are soaring with electricity and natural gas expected to go up 15-20% this winter, the huge illegal alien problem remains, medical costs are jumping, and manufacturing jobs continue to go overseas...
and we have a $12 BILLION A MONTH war full of corruption that we can't seem to win!
11-02-2007 @ 11:48AM
steve said...
It really does not matter who is in control of oil prices. The fact remains that we the people have to pay what the going prices are. We have no control over this at all. We have no choice do we.
You can't drive up to a pump and say let's make a deal can you. Take it or leave it. You can say it's their doing, no it's them. The bottom line is the price is the price and we can't do a thing about it.
This problem is going to mess things up very soon if these prices keep going up. If you think things are bad now, just wait a few months. Watch GM, FORD DODGE ETC. Watch the sales drop big time. Watch consumer spending STOP except for food and some shirts on their backs. Watch retail sales take a nose dive. Watch prices go way up on everything. Things suck and I hope they get better.
11-02-2007 @ 11:43PM
AVoiceofReason said...
Sheldon had it right at the top: Greed is alive and well on Wall Street. In the face of the big banner headlines about the Sub-Prime mess people are forgetting that before they took a loss on some of the debt the banks and loan institutions made record profits. If you average things out over the past 4 or 5 years they're still well off. It's just like an average person putting together a budget except they have tricks they can play like "write-offs" and "one time charges".
It's not doom and gloom time folks. You don't need to find a tower to throw yourself off. We need to tell the guys that are speculating with our futures, the oil speculators for example, thats enough. We need to tell the people selling $250,000 dollar houses for a million bucks thats enough. We need to tell folks to just calm down.
We don't need people like Harry screaming about the sky is falling. Really, how many times have you copied and pasted the same post. Check your facts: No major banks have closed or filed for bankruptcy. Housing prices are adjusting to reality. the psychotic boom over the last 5 years was just wrong. Energy prices are screaming now because the same speculators are pumping the market for profit. The more you panic the more they profit. The illegal alien problem isn't a problem. I live in Idaho. If the illegal aliens were removed the farming business would collapse because Americans, in general, don't want to do actual work for a living. (Are you complaining because some illegal alien has that cushy dish-washing job you wanted?) And the only place I've seen a price tag of 12 Billion a month for the war is in your posts. The real cost of 5 B. is bad enough.
11-08-2007 @ 1:53AM
Angelswillfall said...
All of the sub prime assumptions seem to be unraveling in front of me. Folks, don't panic and sell , if possible . For the long term investments we need to have a longer horizon than five years.
The Banks and Credit Card companies have made their loans to people that are probably going to have a difficult time to pay over their initial home ownership teaser rate. The rate they were offered to get them to occupy the housing seems now in the rear view mirror as the correct rate that will allow someone to live and have some disposable income.
I don' t personally know of too may people that have taken out the home equity loans, although the media has brought us a lot of knowledge of how the credit cards companies are charging us monthly interest on the full balance regardless of the payments applied to the total amount.
This interest rate threat of steeping your interest rate on your credit card interest rates are now more important to pay than a mortgage. People are reconsidering all of the yearly fees and costs of credit that are being added.
These sub prime assumptions didn't assume War was going to last or cost the USA Economy as it has. Ths was going greatly for all of us especially during this of time of war and we need to remind us that we need to sacrifice with our soilders. Lets bring them home as soon as possible.
As I write this the AOL Radio 70's has just reminded me that we were marching in Washington DC to protest the war this time in 1971. Ringo Star created one of my favorite songs; It don't come Easy.