Nobody really knows what moves the market. But that doesn't stop people from offering explanations. Today, according to The Street.com, the Dow fell 362 points because of Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) and Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM). But my hunch is that with inflation running rampant and housing in a tailspin, the market needs more rate cuts to keep rising -- and today the market concluded that the Fed's statement yesterday means that these cuts are not likely to continue.
Citigroup stock was downgraded because analysts thought it might kill its dividend and that it faced a capital shortage. As you'll recall, a few weeks ago it was trying to arrange a government bailout of its $80 billion worth of Structured Investment Vehicles (SIVs) because it had used the proceeds from the Commercial Paper (CP) the SIV issued to invest in worthless mortgage-backed securities (MBSs). If the bailout fails, Citigroup could find itself taking a big write off.
Meanwhile, Exxon Mobil missed earnings expectations by a nickel. That comes as a huge surprise to me since it is hard to imagine why an oil company would not profit hugely from $96 a barrel oil. That is until I start to think about the concept of refinery spreads -- the difference between what Exxon Mobil pays for crude to put in its refineries and what it can charge people at the pumps. I guess crude prices rose while gasoline prices fell -- so Exxon Mobil felt the squeeze.
I think there's a tug of war going on between the Fed and the market. If the market drops enough, the Fed will cave.
Unfortunately, the Fed caving means that many people this winter will have to go without heat because the price of oil to heat their homes will continue to rise as the dollar weakens in response to those Fed rate cuts.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He owns Citigroup stock has no financial interest in Exxon Mobil securities.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
11-01-2007 @ 9:09PM
Keith Paterson said...
It seems that the "Market" doesn't need much of an excuse to manipulate the day's trading! Whether we see a rise or a fall in the indices, there always appears to be a profit for the "Market" inner core.
And it does appear that they have blinders on as to what happens to the rest of the population who have little or no investment in the stock market. Your point on the "cold winter" for some is well spoken. To try to send a message to the Fed's is surely only in the interest of a very few.
11-01-2007 @ 9:25PM
bob said...
The fed knows that lowering the rate will not help the inflated market. It does know that lowering rates will devalue the dollar and increase inflation. They gave the street a 1/4 point. I believe they should have raised the rate 1/4. I would rather have my home valued at it's purchase price in 1987 and have a " buck worth a buck ". Than have a home at today's market price and be broke trying to heat it. The fed is not the answer. Financial responsibility is. Stop the bleeding , let the market drop to it's fair market value , repay our debt , become solvent. For our children's sake.
11-01-2007 @ 9:35PM
Charles Blumenkehl said...
Seems that even in a refinery squeeze, which no doubt will be corrected by passing the bulk of that squeeze off to the optionless consumer, Exxon Mobil continues to print massive amounts of dollars opposed to previous years, and theres no tailoff of that in the forseeable future. Here's some persepctive; This quarter, where Wall Street was disapointed, Exxon Mobil made 9.41 billion dollars, which represents 82% of their full year profit in 2002! We're talking almost 40 billion dollars a year, that used to take them 5 years to make that kind of money a few years back, and its not going to let up any time soon, given the forseeable environment. Once the refinery issue gets absorbed, they'll be moving to 50 billion a year and beyond. Until then, take the 3.6 billion they just saved in litigation relief from the Supreme Court Appellate reversal today for punitive damages, and they'vew more than made up the difference.
11-01-2007 @ 11:52PM
charles spiegel said...
the market is critical to the american public.many people have their life savings in ira's and 401k's tied directly to the market.let alone the multitude of people who invested inthe good faith of the american dream.the oil situation is tough. as long as we are importing we have to pay the price. well, its time to exercise savings and initiate alternative solutions. a rude awakening for the american people. the sooner we develope alternative solutions the faster we will be become independant of the middle east moguls.if interest rates have to come down, so be it. the foreignors will pay for it more so than domestic investors.
11-02-2007 @ 8:33AM
Adam said...
Seems to me that everybody is looking to an external source to stop the bleeding of home foreclosures and the falling home prices. The Feds are not the answer. When most of us are 4-6 paychecks away from bankruptcy, maybe the problem is us. Maybe, we fuel home inflation by buying homes we really cannot afford. By eating out, buying more car then we need, etc. Look around your house and ask yourself if you really and truly use all the space in your house? The master room really needs to be as large? We then pay to heat the big house, pay tax on th inflated appraisal, maintain the extra space, and on and on.
The bottom line is that we seem to have lost our ethics of living within our means. So we borrow, borrow, borrow. And as borrowers, we then worry about external events destroyin our balancing act of matching the money coming in (unsure due to job losses, layoffs) with the money that MUST be paid out, no matter what.