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Market falls on Citigroup, ExxonMobil -- needs Fed rate cuts to keep rising

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Nobody really knows what moves the market. But that doesn't stop people from offering explanations. Today, according to The Street.com, the Dow fell 362 points because of Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) and Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM). But my hunch is that with inflation running rampant and housing in a tailspin, the market needs more rate cuts to keep rising -- and today the market concluded that the Fed's statement yesterday means that these cuts are not likely to continue.

Citigroup stock was downgraded because analysts thought it might kill its dividend and that it faced a capital shortage. As you'll recall, a few weeks ago it was trying to arrange a government bailout of its $80 billion worth of Structured Investment Vehicles (SIVs) because it had used the proceeds from the Commercial Paper (CP) the SIV issued to invest in worthless mortgage-backed securities (MBSs). If the bailout fails, Citigroup could find itself taking a big write off.

Meanwhile, Exxon Mobil missed earnings expectations by a nickel. That comes as a huge surprise to me since it is hard to imagine why an oil company would not profit hugely from $96 a barrel oil. That is until I start to think about the concept of refinery spreads -- the difference between what Exxon Mobil pays for crude to put in its refineries and what it can charge people at the pumps. I guess crude prices rose while gasoline prices fell -- so Exxon Mobil felt the squeeze.

I think there's a tug of war going on between the Fed and the market. If the market drops enough, the Fed will cave.

Unfortunately, the Fed caving means that many people this winter will have to go without heat because the price of oil to heat their homes will continue to rise as the dollar weakens in response to those Fed rate cuts.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He owns Citigroup stock has no financial interest in Exxon Mobil securities.

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 05:15 PM

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