Been wondering how much risky mortgages could cost bondholders? Mark Zandi, an economist at Moody's, set a price tag of $225 billion in losses, according to today's Wall Street Journal (subscription required). By his calculations, there are $2.45 trillion (yes that's trillions) in especially risky mortgages outstanding. He includes subprimes, interest-only loans and mortgages that exceed Fannie Mae lending limits of $417,000 in his figures. Bondholders would be hit hard by these losses because the value of the bonds they hold are based on the value of the mortgage securities and their underlying mortgages.
Problems continue to mount with subprime mortgages. In August subprime mortgages that were more than 60 days behind topped 20%, according to First American Loan Performance. That's up from 18.7% in July and 17.1% in June. Yesterday I wrote about how foreclosures are breaking all records and doubling in many parts of the country. The nationwide foreclosure rate is now one in every 196 households. Nevada is hit hardest with 1 in every 61 households facing foreclosure.
Many money market and mutual funds hold the bonds in question. If your fund holds mortgage-backed securities that are not guaranteed by the government (such as Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac), you could be taking on more risk than you planned to take. Money market funds have historically paid $1 for $1, but if the fund you hold does take loses you may get back less than your principal balance because your fund may not be insured by the FDIC. Be sure you understand the risks you are taking with your money market and mutual funds. It's only a matter of time before these mortgage write-downs impact your holdings.
Lita Epstein has written more than 20 books including "Pocket Idiot's Guide to Investing in Mutual Funds" and "The 250 Questions You Should Ask to Avoid Foreclosure."











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
11-03-2007 @ 8:21AM
t said...
Correction. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are not guaranteed by the government.
11-03-2007 @ 8:27AM
Lita Epstein said...
While it's true Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are privately-owned government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) that were established by Congress, there is little doubt in the marketplace that the loans would be fully backed by the government if they failed. It's a complicated structure. If you want to learn more about the issue read this excellent article:
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1272/is_n2638_v127/ai_20954300
Lita
11-03-2007 @ 12:39PM
william lindblad said...
Although there is still a great deal of uncertainty to the amount of money, both as a write down and a write off, the figure will be high. Figures seem to range from 100 billion to to 4 trillion. The Moody's report does offer one glimmer is intelligence as it points out that the major damage is suspected to be ABOVE the 417,000 HUD backed notes. This has been a problem all along in reporting as foreign news media are lumping all of the sub prime mess into these type of loans. However, the HUD and VA backed loans have been around for years and never caused much of a problem. Both have had high rates of default. In short, they may be the scape goat, but they are not the problem. At present, all emphasis is on the financial houses with little concern regarding the vortex that may be coming. I pose this question. If construction stops, lays off, housing equity continues to decline, living expenses continue to rise and the consumer becomes too hard pressed and stops spending for all but essentials - what happens?
11-03-2007 @ 12:59PM
Lita Epstein said...
William,
Unfortunately what you describe is the formula for a recession, which may be where we're headed if consumer spending does slow.
Lita
11-03-2007 @ 2:10PM
william lindblad said...
Unfortunately, I know that. This looks like the resolution trust on steroids.
11-03-2007 @ 4:55PM
william lindblad said...
A little "food for thought"
While there is only an estimate figure on the RTC, it was around 100 billion.
Factor in inflation and that equates to about 300 billion today.
The RTC had about a 60-70% recovery rate, therefore if the high side is used the
taxpayer picked up about 30 billion (about 90 bil. today)
90 x 10 = 900 billion
The x10 is derived from the amount of available units.
Anyone who travels in Fl. and was around with the RTC will have no problem.