Will IBM check out Check Point?

Today's headlines that IBM (NYSE: IBM) is looking at beefing up its security offerings raises the question if management would acquire Israel-based Check Point Software (NASDAQ: CHKP). Val Rahmani, IBM's general manager of infrastructure management for global technology services, sees security as a key to growth. Val said, "We're looking at a lot of different companies right now, as we always do in a number of different spaces within security."

Until now, the thought on the Street was that Check Point was going to continue as a stand-alone company, but with IBM on the prowl, it may be too much for CEO Gil Schwed to resist. Check Point currently trades at a market cap of $5.53 billion, and an acquisition would certainly come with a much higher price tag. Based on valuation, it would take between $7-8 billion to buy the company. For deep-pocketed IBM, that's not too high a price. For Schwed, a takeover at that price would be tough to reject, and it would break all records for M&A of an Israeli company.

Based on IBM's track record, I would doubt that it is going to try to grow its own security business organically; rather, it will most probably purchase a serious player. Stay tuned to see if that player will be Check Point.

Disclosure: Writer holds a position in CHKP. He has no other position in any stock mentioned as of 11/2/07.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com.