Morgan Stanley write downs may total $6 billion

Will Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) CEO John Mack be the next Wall Street CEO to get whacked?

The New York-based firm may have to take a $6 billion write down, in line with the $8.4 billion bath Merrill Lynch & Co. (NYSE: MER) took and trailing the Citigroup Inc.'s (NYSE: C) $11 billion pill that it might have to swallow. That estimate -- which Morgan won't comment on -- comes courtesy of David Trone, an analyst with Fox-Pitt Kelton Cochran Caronia Waller. It's double the $3 billion estimated by CNBC.

"We suggest an outright avoidance until either management discloses more specific exposure data and it proves smaller than we thought, or they actually take writedowns big enough to get beyond this,'' Trone wrote in a note to clients, according to Bloomberg News.

Shares of New York-based Morgan, which have slumped 18% since Halloween, fell $1.80 to $53.79 today as investors fretted about the size of the shoe that's about to drop.

With the downfall of Stan O'Neal and Chuck Prince, the departure of Mack would leave the one spot open in the disgraced Wall Street CEO golf foursome. My suspicion, though, is that spot is being reserved for Bear Stearns Companies Inc. (NYSE: BSC)'s Jimmy Cayne.