Soros, Greenspan, Gross: More subprime fallout ahead
And when the mavens speak in unison regarding economic fundamentals, well, a word to the wise: be certain to record those data points before forming your own conclusion regarding the U.S. economy's health.
Soros, in a lecture at New York University, said the U.S. economy was on the verge of "a serious correction."
"I think we are definitely in for a slowdown that I think will be a bigger slowdown than (Federal Reserve Chairman Ben) Bernanke is seeing," Soros said, Reuters reported.
Soros also said that, for now, China is the "absolute winner" at the start of the globalization age, that its economy will continue to grow at a strong rate in the years ahead, but that in 10 years time "there could be a financial crisis in China." However, Soros refused to state what currency positions he held or where he thought the dollar, euro and the pound - - the world's primary reserve currencies - - were headed in 2008.
Meanwhile, former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Tuesday that cutting the supply of excess homes in the United States is key to stabilizing the financial system at home and the rest of the world.
Greenspan told Tokyo business leaders via video conference from Washington, D.C. that the key to resolving the subprime issue, and by extension, the international financial system, rested on "getting rid of probably 200,000-300,000 excess units in inventory [unsold houses in the U.S.]," The Associated Press reported.
Further, PIMCO's Bill Gross, chief investment officer of the world's largest bond fund, mirrored Greenspan's statement, and argued that the worst of the subprime crisis is still ahead:
"We've only begun to see the pain from the standpoint of the homeowner in terms of those monthly payments," Gross told business news channel CNBC Tuesday. "Defaults and delinquencies will increase as we extend throughout 2007 and into 2008." Gross said he sees another $250 billion in defaults for the next two years, and that large lenders such as Citigroup (NYSE: C), Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER), and Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) will be paying the price.
Economic Analysis: Taken as a whole, the three's comments do not represent a resounding affirmation of the soundness of economic conditions in the U.S., to say the least. Greenspan's comments appear to be the most illuminating and prescient: illuminating, in that they summarized the crux of the problem facing the financial system - -namely, unsold homes; prescient, in that they point to likely economic conditions, six- to nine-months ahead. Greenspan offered no recommendations regarding how to price and sell the up to 300,000 unsold homes in an orderly, systematic fashion, but with the core problem more-clearly identified, that will be the next compelling question facing policy makers [including the U.S. Federal Reserve], as well realtors and home owners alike.
Related Posts
- Banks up Fed borrowing, watch for new share price lows (35 days ago - 1 Comments)
- Soros: Fannie, Freddie crisis is not the last (52 days ago - 0 Comments)
- Banks becoming hesitant to lend on belief credit losses will increase (11 days ago - 2 Comments)
- New low for mortgage applications (16 days ago - 1 Comments)
- Merrill Lynch, Citigroup and dividend cuts (22 days ago - 0 Comments)











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
11-06-2007 @ 3:18PM
william lindblad said...
This seems to confirm one thing - the best informed are doing the same as everyone else - playing a guessing game. I agree, Greenspan acknowledged a well known problem inasmuch as their IS a glut. He also offered no solution. His figures are also very,very, conservative. Anyone wishing to confirm my point of view as only to go to realtor.com, pick a few big cities in the hard pressed areas and you will quickly agree that it would take a lot more sales to revive the housing market. The realtor site does not take into account the buy owners, nor builder projects so it would be safe to add at least 10%.
China? Let's just call this Asia. Primary buyers of U.S. government debt and a few of their stock markets are in "bubble" mode.
Yes, this is far from over.
The missing ingredient is the holders of the debt. We only know of some, mostly domestic. This was a financial feeding frenzy that is already in billions in write down and non-performing notes. Does the U.K's Northern Rock have any company?
Are any of the European banks involved?
Until some of the questions get answered - we are all in the same boat.
11-16-2007 @ 8:02AM
Bob Callahan said...
Greenspan spoke of 300,000 unsold homes and getting rid of them in an orderly fashion. Where is there a list of the companies that have these houses and how are they trying to sell them? The faster these house can be transitioned to buyers that can afford them the better it will be for everyone.
Does anyone have a list of the companies that have these houses?