Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) website CEO Raul Vasquez is looking forward to a very solid holiday shopping season this year. As Doug referenced this morning, Vasquez said Tuesday that the retailer's Halloween shopping season had been a good one and bodes well for the world's largest retailer if consumers step up to shop for holiday goodies at the same level as they did during the just-completed Halloween holiday.
But then, Vasquez is predicting a rise of 40% to 60% this year for Walmart.com sales compared to last year. That level sounds too much like projective cheerleading than reality since customers will most likely tighten those spending belts more than in a long time -- starting now. If Vasquez is correct, a rise of that level would indeed be a coup if those numbers became actualized after December.
Worry has gripped the market in relation to retail holiday sales this year with rocky housing markets, energy price increases and a tightening of lending standards. Those features of the U.S. economy at this moment may sway more shoppers to Walmart.com, even if customers order online and pickup their purchases at a local Wal-Mart location. But 40% to 60% gains? I have to wonder if more customers will simply shift to the web instead of fight lines at stores -- or if that projected growth rate would be mostly organic growth.
The National Retail Federation said that growth in this year's holiday shopping season may rise at their slowest pace in five years. Wal-Mart must agree here since it launched early holiday sales almost a month in advance this year. Perhaps that is the 40% to 60% increase Vasquez is counting on.











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