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With $100 oil in sight, traders talk $110

Once gain, oil traders are saying oil is overbought, short-term, and once again, oil moves toward the stratosphere.

Oil gained 95 cents to $97.25 Wednesday, touching $98.62 earlier, after the U.S. Energy Department reported that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 821,000 barrels for the week ending November 2, and on temporary oil production shutdowns in the North Sea. In addition, heating oil gained 2.62 cents to $2.6295 and unleaded regular gasoline rose 1.77 cents to $2.4470.

BP Plc (NYSE: BP) and ConocoPhilips (NYSE: COP) said they plan to curb output in the North Sea starting Wednesday night before storms batter the area, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday. That only added to traders' jitters regarding the U.S. market's ability to remain well-supplied heading into the Northern Hemisphere's winter.

"Globally, oil markets are well supplied, but for the U.S., anything, a North Sea shutdown, a cold snap in the northeast, can send oil up another $2 or $3," one oil trader said to BloggingStocks. "The market has discounted $100 and $110 looks like the next target."

Vicious circle

Further, the oil market, in addition to a geopolitical premium and a trader/speculator premium, is now being plagued by a "vicious circle" involving the dollar and oil, according to Jim Dietz, an independent energy trader.

Dietz said the outflow of money from the U.S. needed to pay for oil imports, is driving the dollar lower. (The euro rose to a record-high of $1.4731 against the dollar Wednesday). That lower dollar, however, is also pushing oil's price higher as a result of speculation that OPEC will seek to limit production to drive the barrel price higher to maintain the purchasing power of their oil sold, which is priced in dollars.

"There's no question now that the vicious circle is adding to oil's cost," Dietz told bloggingstocks.com. "Oil's price is forcing the dollar lower, which in turn is forcing oil's price higher still. Oil is overbought short-term, but the market isn't paying attention at this point."

China factor

Dietz also sided China's intention to diversify the nation's $1.43 trillion worth of foreign exchange reserves as another factor that's driving oil's price to near-record levels. In April 1980, oil reached an inflation-adjusted high of $101.70 per barrel.

"China's reserve currency diversification announcement could not have come at a worse time," Dietz said. "China's decision means they're likely to sell dollars, driving the dollar lower still, which will, that's right, drive oil's price even higher. China's only acting in its self-interest, but at some point, if they seek to be a world power, they have to consider the implications of their actions on the global markets, on the international financial system."

Dietz believes oil's march to the $100 per barrel level "is a done deal."

"It is inevitable. The only question now is: does this market have the legs to move above $110 and stay there?," Dietz said. "That's still a debatable point."

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Last updated: December 02, 2008: 02:26 PM

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