Once gain, oil traders are saying oil is overbought, short-term, and once again, oil moves toward the stratosphere.
Oil gained 95 cents to $97.25 Wednesday, touching $98.62 earlier, after the U.S. Energy Department reported that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 821,000 barrels for the week ending November 2, and on temporary oil production shutdowns in the North Sea. In addition, heating oil gained 2.62 cents to $2.6295 and unleaded regular gasoline rose 1.77 cents to $2.4470.
BP Plc (NYSE: BP) and ConocoPhilips (NYSE: COP) said they plan to curb output in the North Sea starting Wednesday night before storms batter the area, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday. That only added to traders' jitters regarding the U.S. market's ability to remain well-supplied heading into the Northern Hemisphere's winter.
"Globally, oil markets are well supplied, but for the U.S., anything, a North Sea shutdown, a cold snap in the northeast, can send oil up another $2 or $3," one oil trader said to BloggingStocks. "The market has discounted $100 and $110 looks like the next target."
Vicious circle
Further, the oil market, in addition to a geopolitical premium and a trader/speculator premium, is now being plagued by a "vicious circle" involving the dollar and oil, according to Jim Dietz, an independent energy trader.
Dietz said the outflow of money from the U.S. needed to pay for oil imports, is driving the dollar lower. (The euro rose to a record-high of $1.4731 against the dollar Wednesday). That lower dollar, however, is also pushing oil's price higher as a result of speculation that OPEC will seek to limit production to drive the barrel price higher to maintain the purchasing power of their oil sold, which is priced in dollars.
"There's no question now that the vicious circle is adding to oil's cost," Dietz told bloggingstocks.com. "Oil's price is forcing the dollar lower, which in turn is forcing oil's price higher still. Oil is overbought short-term, but the market isn't paying attention at this point."
China factor
Dietz also sided China's intention to diversify the nation's $1.43 trillion worth of foreign exchange reserves as another factor that's driving oil's price to near-record levels. In April 1980, oil reached an inflation-adjusted high of $101.70 per barrel.
"China's reserve currency diversification announcement could not have come at a worse time," Dietz said. "China's decision means they're likely to sell dollars, driving the dollar lower still, which will, that's right, drive oil's price even higher. China's only acting in its self-interest, but at some point, if they seek to be a world power, they have to consider the implications of their actions on the global markets, on the international financial system."
Dietz believes oil's march to the $100 per barrel level "is a done deal."
"It is inevitable. The only question now is: does this market have the legs to move above $110 and stay there?," Dietz said. "That's still a debatable point."











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
11-07-2007 @ 12:19PM
Mark Goldes said...
Time for a "Triple Play": Reduce Oil Prices and Dependence on Fossil Fuels, while Meeting the Growing Demand for Electric Power
The Cost of Oil
Oil prices are climbing toward $100/barrel. In two years there will be one billion automotive vehicles worldwide. If current trends continue, by 2030 world oil supply, projected to be 70 Million barrels per day, will fall far short of the estimated daily demand. The projected shortfall of 40 Million barrels of oil per day will drive fuel costs far beyond tenable levels. The world will see more wars, such as the conflict in Iraq, unless a path is opened that can dramatically reduce demand for oil.
Fossil Fuels and Global Warming
James Hansen at NASA Goddard speaks for many scientists, stating that we must dramatically reduce the use of fossil fuels in less than a decade to avoid life threatening catastrophes. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, that shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore, concluded that drastic shifts are happening much more rapidly than earlier predicted. As the average global temperature increases, each 1 degree Celsius rise deprives between 400 million and 1.7 billion people of sufficient water.
Greenland loses more ice each year than all the ice in the Alps said Konrad Steffen, a Greenland expert and advisor on abrupt climate change. "It is scary," said Steffen. Not only in Greenland, but in Antarctica and elsewhere there is massive melting of ice. In 8 years nearly all Peru's glaciers will be gone due to global warming and its 27 million people will nearly all lack fresh water, with the likely result being: 'chaos, conflict and mass migration'. A total of 46 nations and 2.7 billion people are now at high risk of being overwhelmed by armed conflict and war because of climate change. A further 56 countries face political destabilization, affecting another 1.2 billion individuals. (Observer UK 11-4-07). More than 180 nations have coastal areas in peril. Two-thirds have over 5 million people under threat of serious flooding. Included are cities such as New York, London, Miami, Shanghai and Tokyo.
The World’s Huge Appetite for Energy
Energy consumption is at the core of human existence. It virtually controls what we eat, how we live, where we go, how we are entertained, our health, knowledge, defense and exploration. The world's demand for energy is surging.
The International Energy Outlook 2006, by the U.S. Department of Energy, forecasts electricity use will grow by an average of 2 percent per year worldwide and almost twice as rapidly in the developing world. Robust economic growth in many developing nations is expected to boost demand for electricity for air conditioning, cooking, space and water heating, and refrigeration. Global energy consumption is projected to increase by 71% from 2003 to 2030. We need to sharply accelerate development of radically new, cost-effective, sustainable alternatives.
The Triple Play
A revolutionary new technology, GENIE™ (Generating Electricity by Nondestructive Interference of Energy) is being developed at Magnetic Power, Inc. (MPI).
MPI has dedicated more than 20 years of research and development into exploring breakthrough technologies. To reverse the trends discussed above, MPI envisions a technological revolution, developed commercially, that has limited impact on available planetary resources. GENIE is projected to be easy to manufacture and use, as well as inexpensive, thus capable of rapidly achieving global impact.
Based upon proprietary breakthrough discoveries in MPI's labs, GENIE generators are being designed to operate continuously, without fuel, extracting electricity by converting an energy source that exists everywhere in the universe. This process creates no pollution. The cost of electricity is estimated to be significantly less than any competing form of power generation, today or in the foreseeable future.
GENIE generators with no moving parts can be made in many of the world's electronics factories. Household units will produce power 24/7. Larger units will replace automobile engines. GENIE will eliminate any need for fuel to run a vehicle. It can also allow future cars to become income producing power plants when parked.
GENIE is a magnetic device. Nobel physicist Werner Heisenberg once stated: "We could utilize magnetism as an energy source". Hans Coler demonstrated a 6 Kilowatt, solid-state, magnetic "space-energy receiver" in Germany during 1937. It was destroyed by an Allied bomb during WWII. The invention was confirmed by British Intelligence after the War. However, at the time, there was no comprehension as to the source of the energy. Coler wrote: "These fundamental researches…have made the first real and large breach in the citadel of present scientific belief."
Advanced GENIE prototypes are currently being constructed by MPI. Lee Felsenstein, EE, evaluated an early proof-of-concept prototype. He felt it to be analogous to the first examples of the transistor, which eventually led to a Nobel Prize and the creation of Silicon Valley (and similar high-tech complexes throughout the world).
A near-term MPI goal is a compact, solid-state, 1 kW self-sustaining generator. In 2008, a plug-in hybrid car, with a pair of these 1,000 watt GENIE prototypes, is expected to demonstrate that a connection to the grid is not necessary in order to recharge the battery. That will herald the beginning of an end to the need for fuel.
The urgent need is for an emergency changeover, in less than a decade, from burning fuel, to widespread use of new sources of energy that eliminate the need for fossil fuels. The Triple Play made possible by GENIE makes that a practical goal. We applaud all efforts to replace oil and reduce greenhouse gases. However, nothing short of revolutionary new technology can act fast enough to save millions of lives.
Scientists may express skepticism, since the energy source is not yet widely understood. Acceptance will come when one sits on a desk in front of them and produces electricity. MPI is developing Demonstration Devices and toys. Young people with open minds might teach their elders how they function. This Triple Play can and will accelerate, as rapidly as the required funding will allow.
www.magneticpowerinc.com © 2007 Magnetic Power Inc. All rights reserved. Rev. 11-7-07
11-07-2007 @ 12:38PM
Daniel Chiera said...
Back in March - April of this year we were around 23-24 m barrels a day now we are at over 30 . It was said at this March - April time that spare capcity was possibly 2-3 mil barrels , so my point is have we as a planet maxed our current ability to meet the new demands of the output curve. have we entered a new period where up is the only direction.....I believe not... the oil companies need to take some of these profits and build new refineries and up date the infrastructure to meet and exceed current demand. As it is now they have created a situation that has supplies running lean to short and we should not have to be the ones pating the price we are today.
If by cahance we have or are at a plateau than we the people need to know you want people to conserve well tell them we have peaked perduction and until we find more ???Many will disagree with this next statement but the US needs to import all the oil it can so when it is gone we will still have what is ours..keep this in mind when you complain about the cost now...!!!! Daniel Chiera w-s NC
11-08-2007 @ 7:28AM
Brad Arnold said...
At first, the rise in oil prices was reported to be the effect of Bush's saber rattling with Iran. Now, a feedback loop has set in, and the oil dollar, as it weakens, rises the price of oil, weakening the US dollar further, rising the price of oil further. Bush may feel forced to order a preventative attack on Iran to cease this feedback loop initially fueled by his saber rattling. Iran's strongest move militarily is to attack Saudi oil facilities in the fog of war, dramatically increasing the value of Iran's oil, punishing a US ally, and doing grave harm to the US oil driven economy. Thanks Bush, your threats have set off a horrible chain reaction.
11-08-2007 @ 10:11AM
Daniel E Chiera said...
Further study has me thinking about this 100 mark.
Opec has said previously that it will hold tight on its output, HHUUMM I thought they supported 60-80$ per barrel oil. Well the real reason is the just simply do not have the capacity to pump any more. Time over time they have said that they would hold tight and have always recanted, so why it is now with oil where it is are they doing nothing?!
As I previously stated the current infrastructure is so out of date to today’s needs and supply concerns it will likely be an even greater issue in the years to come if things do not change.
The perception that there is a us economy and an European economy etc. is a naive perception, It is a WORLD ECONOMEY.