TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says without more cuts, more bleak days and a reversion to 1990 are ahead.Yeah, you don't need me to know it is bad. Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) (Cramer's Take) said the wrong thing about financial services Wednesday night, certainly off message for Mr. Chambers. It would be one thing if the stock hadn't run, it has. Now it must go lower, even though it really wasn't that bad. It had been gunned, though, and everyone I know is hiding in tech.
I didn't like the revenue number from McDermott (NYSE: MDR) (Cramer's Take), and that's going to hurt the infra group. Someone's going to say that MDR could be the beginning of the end of the Shaw (NYSE: SGR)/Foster-Wheeler (NASDAQ: FWLT) move.
But in the end, it is the same thing it always is: mortgages. AIG (NYSE AIG) (Cramer's Take), after the bell Wednesday, is a black hole. Who the heck knows what they really have? Maybe they will even tell us.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) (Cramer's Take) wasn't any worse than the papers hinted, but they said it would get worse. Thanks!
In the end, it always comes down to the same thing: Are we going to avoid 1990 or not?
Today was a day when the answer was pretty loud: We aren't!
Will the government start recognizing the potential failure of major lending institutions? Doesn't sound like it from these Fed gov'nors! What do they need? What kind of road map do they need? What kind of cry from the heavens?
For heaven's sake, Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) (Cramer's Take) was down four points today. That's what happened in 1990! Just like that. Don't even look at the mortgage insurers, you will get scared.
The center, frankly, ain't holding. In a 1990 scenario, we go down 12%. We revisit, if not take out, the summer lows. We have mitigating factors -- rest-of-worlders, high growers like Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) (Cramer's Take), Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) (Cramer's Take), Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG) (Cramer's Take) and the like -- but it can't offset the financials. At least not yet.
My advice: If the Fed doesn't shut up, if the Fed guys keep talking glibly, then get ready to check out those summer lows.
We've cut rates. It has helped some. Not enough. They have to keep cutting. Or more of these kinds of days are directly ahead. With no relief from the Fed, I think a 5% correction from here would be reasonable as part of the 1990 scenario that I so much don't want to have happen.
But if we get a sense that they might move to avert 1990, today's the moment to buy because it is still not too late to avoid 1990!
Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in stocks mentioned.
RELATED LINKS











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
11-08-2007 @ 9:43AM
Jeff said...
how about, instead of the fed prescribing cuts to the wall street junkies, we actually see good economic policy?
11-08-2007 @ 10:10AM
Jon said...
I disagree .. the Federal Reserve continues to causes major problems with there policies and they continue to bail out large institutions and billionaire hedge funds .. LET THEM COLLAPSE, they got greedy and made their money already.
The free market will pick up the pieces and rebuild with new players that have better ideas and LESS GREED at first anyway.
Let the forrest burn so new growth can take hold ... OH and USA should DUMP THE FEDERAL RESERVE !
11-08-2007 @ 1:09PM
joenorm said...
Please explain where all the losses are. If a person has a $150,000 house and got a 90% loan the lender has $135,000 in the property. If the property goes promptly into default and the bank forecloses the property should " fire sale" for $135,000--the bank is out the costs of the foreclosure--maybe $7500 so where are all the big losses?
thanks,
11-08-2007 @ 1:34PM
Kim said...
Speaking of shutting up...Cramer...
11-08-2007 @ 3:09PM
Andrea said...
This market was due for a major correction. Period. You can expect real estate to appreciate up to 350% in three years without it falling some, and falling hard. If the Fed keeps cutting rates, he will keep delaying the inevitable. He was the one who contributed to this mess, and he should let the correction happen and don't try fighting it, unless we want a weaker dollar and even longer recession. Companies and consumers must learn a lesson, as hard as it may be, it needs to be dealt with and not just bail them all out to let them do it all over again. Why punish those who were prudent and careful with finances and bail out predators and irresponsible people? It's basic psychology, if you reward bad behavior, you will just get more of it.
11-08-2007 @ 2:30PM
DJSel said...
It seems to me that if the fed continues to cut rates to bail out the lending institutions,the dollar will continue to fall.This would be highly inflationary ,the cost of fuel and other imports would increase and and this would cause a recession.
11-28-2007 @ 12:20PM
bill said...
there are many additional cost in foreclosures than just guessing at the potential quick sale value. the
bank has foreclosure cost, non preforming asset cost, back taxes and insurance to pay. property up keep until sale, sales commission, and maybe the most expensive cost putting the property back in a marketable condition to sell. i've never seen a foreclosed property that didn't require major repairs prior to marketing.
11-08-2007 @ 10:02PM
my thoughts said...
A couple of comments:
To Andrea: "It's basic psychology, if you reward bad behavior, you will just get more of it." You're right. I work in this industry ... and I have to admit, as of this minute, I'm not seeing much in termns of real change. We're throwing short term solutions at the losses - cutting back staff, offshoring depts., not a lot is happening to address the root cause: compensating originators for fraudulent loans. Until the industry revisits compensation plans, holding originators accountable for the quality of their production, not much will change.
To Joe: "so where are all the big losses?" Joe, the losses are occurring because there is no equity available to offset the losses. Why not? A variety of reasons: 1. the original equity position was misreported; 2. Loans were originated with high (100%) LTV/CLTV - so there IS not equity; 3. the glut of inventory is driving down housing prices, thereby depleting any equity that previously existed; 4. fraudsters and/or opportunists are orchestrating "short sales scheme" where third parties are taking advantage of banks who have large REO inventories - they are offering quick "cash" sales to desperate banks, with the intent to flip them in a successive sale.
11-09-2007 @ 4:41PM
william lindblad said...
Jim:
If you are calling for another RTC, do look at what is out here. By this, I mean sheer voluume. The scope of this is 10X larger and if I recall the RTC figures, they were 60-100 billion on estimate. We should also keep in mind that these figures are in 1990 dollars and varied, depending on what was included (base value, taxes, muni loss, fees, etc.).
The RTC did manage to reclaim loss at around 60-70, but that still leaves a lot of loose change. If you adjust for inflation, do times ten and want to promote this idea you had better be wearing a flack jacket. We should also remember Bush 1st's statement of "recession, what recession", how the polls changed thereafter, and of course, who won.