I doubt anyone will be surprised to hear that Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL), a luxury homebuilder, faced another quarter of poor earnings [subscription required]. The company said it expected to report a 36% fall in its fiscal fourth quarter revenue to $1.17 billion. Robert Toll doesn't think the worst is over yet. Signed contracts dropped from 1,595 a year ago to just 1,073 in the fourth quarter. The company's backlog of inventory on Oct. 31 was $2.85 billion, down 36%, but still pretty high.
Last month Robert Toll said the housing market hasn't bottomed out yet and he doesn't think Federal Reserve interest rate cuts will help fix the problem. He believes only a return to conventional underwriting standards will ultimately fix it. While I agree with Toll, the truth of the matter is that fixing the housing market will be a very long road. More than a return to conventional underwriting standards needs to be done if we want to hear some goods news from the housing sector any time in the next two years. In many areas of the country, the inventory of homes for sale sitting on the market would take two to three years to clear, and it's only going to get worse as foreclosures rise.
I can certainly understand why those who pay their mortgages on time would be angry about giving help to those who don't. However, the reality of the situation is that all homeowners -- both those who are paying on time and those who are not able to -- are hurt by the rising inventory of unsold homes. As inventories rise, prices will drop. If anything can be done to help people stay in their homes rather than force them out, it's good for everyone. While I don't support the idea of a free ride or bail-out, there are many ways to restructure loans to give people an option, such as longer loan terms and reasonable fixed rates. Hopefully we'll see some rational moves by the loan servicers and those they serve soon. I'm sure many of them are starting to realize that regular payments on a loan, even at lower interest rates, is better than getting the vacant home back by foreclosure.
Lita Epstein has written more than 20 books including "The 250 Questions You Should Ask to Avoid Foreclosure" and "Reading Financial Reports for Dummies."











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
11-08-2007 @ 2:05PM
Bill Harrison said...
Why would lenders who don't require down payments, nor proof of income, not foresee this melt down. They created excess demand on homes which drove up prices on the homes sold and now that people can't sell nor pay for their homes we have a mess. Many people, mortgage broker and investment executives, made alot of money by lowering standard for home purchases and now the government should demand their bonuses back to pay for their mess.
11-09-2007 @ 4:15PM
gonzalo said...
My ideal situation for those like myself that are feeling the mortgage crunch, is to have our lenders entend the life of the loan and lower the percentage rate as low as possible. Let the govenment help the lenders by giving them tax incentives, rather than have banks foreclose on someones dream.
11-10-2007 @ 6:33AM
will257b said...
One thing left out is that CEO Toll also is putting the slowdown on media attention.
That is total nonsense, but I am sure there will be plenty of blame to go around.
As the exec, he should be willing to take his share - he is one of many who overbuilt.
To a solution - you have it - time. The market is in glut and that is only in what is new
and real estate re-sale. One also has to consider that there are low-end properties like
mobile homes, for sale-by-owners and projects still under construction that are not
being counted. The best possible solution is that lenders make effort to re-negotiate
terms that will allow owners to remain in the property even if it takes 50 year notes
to accomplish. While there is no panacea, the difference is between a mild recession and
a severe one. This one is up to our leadership as they steer the ship.