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Top resource ideas: Junior miners from Doug Casey

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This article is part of a 20 article special report on "Metals, miners and money".

"If you are relying on traditional investments to pad your nest for the future, the problems stalking the world economy should be a matter of serious concern," cautions Doug Casey, editor of The International Speculator.

"The $2 trillion or so loss in stock market valuations during the August correction is a precursor of what's to come ... in a best case. The worse case is ... much, much worse.

"Which brings me to the opportunity that the crisis is carrying on its back. For any number of reasons, but first and foremost its use as money in all the world's cultures, throughout all recorded history, gold has begun to find renewed favor with in-the-know investors as the currency of last resort.

"Make no mistake, despite gold's rise from its $255 low in April of 2001 to over $800 as I write, so far, only the thinnest of trickles, a minor fraction of global capital, has made it into gold. When the flight to safety really heats up, the price of gold won't just add dollars, it will add digits.

"If that sounds like hyperbole, remember that, unlike the U.S. dollar, which can be created at the speed of light, the available supply of gold is finite and is painfully slow to change.

"There are hardly any gold mines of size scheduled to come on stream ... and we are not talking about just over the next year or two, but ever. Most people in the know see annual gold production falling from here on.

"For proof, despite the incentive of higher gold prices, South African gold production in 2006 dropped to the lowest level since 1922. South Africa is, of course, the world's most prolific gold producer.

"And, above ground, there just isn't much gold to go around either. The U.S. government, for example, possesses the world's largest gold reserves ... and those reserves amount to only about $170 billion at today's prices ... not even a rounding error on the trillions of dollars in debt the government has guaranteed.

"Put simply, the amount of gold available to investors and central banks is like the number of beachfront home sites at Malibu -- it's not going to change much. As a result, when the rush for the lifeboats begins in earnest, the upward pressure on gold will be unimaginable. As will be the profits for anyone who acts now, ahead of the crowd.

"If you haven't yet started accumulating precious metals, you still have time. Start by picking up some bullion coins from a reputable dealer (silver should do as well as gold).

"Then build a portfolio of the better small companies exploring for new deposits -- the ones with the best management teams, working on the best projects, in the best geology. These stocks are the true profit gems -- in part because of an accident of recent history.

"During the long bear market that ended in 2001, the large mining companies all but eliminated their exploration departments. Now they urgently need new deposits to restock their declining ore reserves.

"But rather then scouring the world themselves, the majors let the more agile and entrepreneurial junior explorers -- often Canadian firms, due to the resource orientation of that country's economy -- invest the capital and sweat needed to find a new deposit.

"Then, when a junior company's project seems ripe, the majors compete to buy the deposit or to acquire the junior explorer itself -- and they pay up in a most serious way.

"While there's no such thing as a sure thing, there are times -- like now -- when the deck is heavily, massively, stacked in your favor.

"You are, therefore, left with a relatively simple choice. Do nothing and hope that all the world's troubles just drift away -- and risk personal financial disaster if they don't. Or take action, if even with a modest share of your portfolio, and position yourself for extreme profits.

"We currently like Alexco Silver (TSE: AXR), a Canadian silver play, and AuEx Ventures (CVE: XAU) a relatively new company with a focus on Nevada that is run by Ron Parratt, a member of the Explorers' League that while working with major mining companies has led teams responsible for finding over 20 million ounces of gold in that minerally-endowed state."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com website features the latest investment commentary and favorite stock picks of the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

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Last updated: November 10, 2009: 07:01 AM

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