So we've heard some pretty dumb excuses for bad corporate performance. Overstock.com (NASDAQ: OSTK) blames it on short sellers and reporters. Blaming the weather is an age-old tactic for retailers.And then there's Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) CEO Robert I. Toll, who knows how to make the housing market get better: The media needs to stop talking about how bad it is.
It's vaguely reminiscent of one of my favorite movies, Spinal Tap. In the best-known scene, Nigel Tufnel explains to an observer that the band's amps go to 11, rather than 10. The incredulous man asks how that really makes them go louder -- they only go to a certain volume, regardless of what number it's labeled.
So apparently Toll believes that if the media labels housing differently, it will magically make everything better. Stop talking about the subprime crisis and ... poof! No more subprime crisis. Here's what he said on a recent conference call, according to The New York Times:
"Perhaps as the presidential campaign heats up and moves to the front page, negative articles about housing will move off the front page. Then, hopefully, the positive underpinnings of low interest rates, low unemployment and a decent economy will raise new-home-buyer confidence."
Some potential buyers, he says, have "read one too many Times articles, and decided now is not the time to buy a home."
Perhaps there is a certain amount of reflexivity in the housing mess. It gets bad, the papers say it's bad, people get scared, they don't buy, it gets worse, the papers say it got worse, people get scared ...
But there are also legitimate fundamental factors driving the housing downturn, not the least of which is that housing prices have been propped up by easy credit. Maybe the headline shock is driving away some buyers. But what is the media supposed to do? Not report the news?











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
11-12-2007 @ 4:54PM
kluji said...
awww...poor toll brothers....blame the media when things get tough....but it was ok when the media talked about how "good things were" right?
11-12-2007 @ 5:11PM
Byron Spain said...
Anyone who doesn't blame the cartel of short sellers has no insight into reality. When a tight group of unscrupulous individuals, most not Americans, control a trillion dollars and desire to screw our small investors, to hell with our country, this is what you get. The news media are little but blabbering fools who only repeat what they hear, regardless of the truth or facts.
11-12-2007 @ 5:13PM
Harry said...
Blame the media??? Huh? How about banks and greedy mortgage companies??!
11-12-2007 @ 5:25PM
Jane Goodie said...
The comments by The Blackstone Group President and CEO Hamilton James makes clear that the crises is not just media hype. The NewsVisual article http://www.newsvisual.com/newsvisual/2007/11/post.html illustrates that this company has a very experienced Board of Directors, and thus James’s comments about the severity of the subprime mortgage crisis must be taken seriously.
11-12-2007 @ 7:08PM
raymond Humenick said...
I remember a few years ago when some people were talking about a housing bubble. But the Nay-sayers, bankers, mortgage brokers, realtors and media were all saying "no way, no bubble, not gonna happen" so much for positive thinking...All they were positively thinking about was all the money they were making at the time Pretty much reflecting the Bush administration philosophy since its inception.
Foreclosing on houses people can't afford and trying to sell them to other people who can't afford them is lame. When the inflated prices of houses comes down to realistic levels, the housing market will rebound. Better get in on the bottom though!
11-12-2007 @ 5:29PM
Alouisis said...
Who is at fault? You are not going to like this one, Ron Reagan. How is he at fault? You may recall, he led the charge to deregulate the Saving & Loan industry. At the same time the Supreme Court essentially invalidated the usury laws. This was promptly followed by the S&L crash (Lincoln Thrift, Silverado S&L, etc.) Since then, the Thrifts have been foraging high and low for revenue growth. Since their charters were changed, they continued to develop wild and crazy lending the rest of the financial world followed as they observed the huge profits. Unfortunately, they did not make nearly enough on each loan because the borrowers could never repay. And so here we are. Greed abetted by government leaving investors holding the bag.
11-12-2007 @ 6:07PM
Linda Ealry said...
Maybe there is just a glut of million dollar plus homes. Most folks who can afford a pricey home have one. Could builders have over-built high end product? Could developers have over developed?
11-12-2007 @ 6:31PM
michael schneider said...
The builders didn't complain of positive comments on real estate that were prevalent before the subprime mess hit and all the house flipping hoopla on reality shows (see http://www.Barrelomedia for an item about housing reality shows) which may have helped the market become overextended. Anyway the media does have quite a bit of power to influence things and they probably contribute to some of the fear in the market- I'd agree though that it may very well be justified.
11-12-2007 @ 6:32PM
michael schneider said...
Above URL is
http://www.Barrelomedia.com
11-14-2007 @ 8:51PM
jo said...
I do not think that it is the press, the foreclosure rate speaks for itselfs.
The builders and mortgage company's who gave mortgages to people that truly could not afford them to begin with, or when the interest only payment expired would not beable to make payment. It is the builders and the mortgage company's fault due their greed, this is the reason for this mess.
11-28-2007 @ 7:26AM
Saz said...
Personally, I would love to know his position when this artificial market was on "auto pilot" toward the sky! The fact that everyone was buying multi unit bldgs, completing condo conversions and over-pricing the market has nothing to do with it, right? The fact that predator lenders were targeting borrowers with 'sub prime loans' with teaser interest rates & now many of those individuals are facing foreclosure has nothing to do with it, right? The fact that I reviewed listings (over the past 4 years) that had rental multipliers of 22%, 30% and higher (when the most seasoned investor works with numbers of 5% or LOWER), has nothing to do with it, right? The media was consistently reporting "information" that the housing market was an investment vehicle for many investors who now preferred real estate (tangible asset) over the stock market and home builders could not keep pace with demand.
What was Mr. Toll's position at that time? His company was reporting its highest profits and he was enjoying fat checks all the way to the bank! (A rhetorical question, of course).
12-12-2007 @ 10:22AM
PATRICK said...
Yes its easy to blame the media, the buyers and anyone else. But you greedy investors, mortgage companies and the rest of you who during the normal year take home millions of $ of perks each year and look down on the normal working middle class people now have to step down a few knotches its always some elses problem why it happened. I blame most of all your Greedy and other words I wont use on line for causing this mess. You lie to customers, jack up housing prices and cheat on information submitted and cry when you have to drop you pants and take a kick in the butt. This is not the first or will it be the last time you Greedy Pigs have to lay down in your own muck. You all rode a Sick Mule making tons of speculative $. Now the Mule is dead and everyone has to come and give you there hard earned $1.
Kiss off you will live just not as high as you used to.