Unconventional oil, unconventional challenges

Posted Nov 12th 2007 2:52PM by Joseph Lazzaro
Filed under: Exxon Mobil (XOM), Venezuela, Chevron Corp (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), Canada, Commodities, Oil

Rising global demand for oil, combined with geological studies that predict that global oil production derived from conventional oil supplies will begin to decline late in this century, or as early as 2040, has led to a search for unconventional oil supplies.

Further, a large amount of that unconventional oil exists in the form of tar sands in Alberta, Canada, the bitumen of which is capable of producing 1.7 billion barrels of synthetic crude. Moreover, if just 10% of this field is actually recoverable, it would still represent the second largest oil reserve in the world.

But, as writer Elizabeth Kolbert outlined in an article on unconventional oil in this week's issue of The New Yorker magazine ("Unconventional Crude"), extracting that resource comes at a price: it's more expensive to extract -- about $1 of energy is needed to generate $3 of unconventional oil -- more CO2 is also released into the atmosphere than from conventional oil, and mines dug to secure the material scar the landscape, if not fully restored.

Unconventional crude can also be found in Venezuela, which has a large reserve, Colorado, Utah and Wyoming. So long as crude oil prices stay above $45 per barrel ($40 for some projects), it's profitable to produce oil from tar sands. With oil currently selling for more than $90 per barrel -- and likely to remain above $50 for the foreseeable future -- it's likely that current tar sand project participants Shell (NYSE: RDS.B), ConocoPhilips (NYSE: COP), Chevron (NYSE: CHV) and ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) will maintain operations.

Oil Analysis: Shale oil's higher economic and social costs are unmistakable, but here again the game-maker (or game-breaker) most likely will be priced, which is dependent on the demand for oil. If global oil demand slackens and oil's price declines to the $40-50 a barrel, it's conceivable that many shale oil / tar sands projects could be tapered, if not shuttered. Conversely, if current oil demand projections prove accurate and oil maintains a heady price, it's hard not to envision an energy role for shale oil in the decade ahead.

Tags: Canada, Chevron, climate change, Colorado, ConocoPhilips, COP, CVX, environment, ExxonMobil, Kolbert, oil, OPEC, RDS.B, RoyalDutchShell, shale, tar sands, Utah, Venezuela, XOM