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Will E*Trade go bankrupt?

E*Trade Financial (NASDAQ: ETFC) logo E*Trade Financial Corp. (NASDAQ: ETFC) imploded today after the company warned of worse-than-expected earnings and a Citigroup (NYSE: C) analyst said that the company might have to file for bankruptcy protection.

Shares of the company, which has cut earnings forecasts four times this year, plunged to levels not seen since 2003. E*Trade, which lost $58.5 million, or 14 cents a share, in the period ending September 30, expects 2007 profit of between 75 cents and 90 cents, a range big enough to drive a tractor-trailer through. Shares of the New York-based company have plunged 53%.

In a note to clients, analyst Prashant Bhatia said that poor management has "put the viability of the franchise at risk" and that "bankruptcy risk cannot be ruled out," according to Bloomberg News. He cut his rating on the stock to "sell" from "neutral."
Of course, E*Trade is trying to accentuate the positive, pointing out that in October, total client assets rose 4% sequentially to $226.7 million. More worrisome, though, is the 4.8% rise in margin debt balances and the 1% jump in average margin debt.

"As a matter of fact, we could absorb an immediate write-down in excess of $1 billion and still remain well capitalized," E*Trade President and Chief Operating Officer Jarrett Lilien said in a message to customers posted on the company's Web site, according to Reuters. Sounds like a bit of macho posturing, no?

Even if it doesn't go bankrupt, E*Trade is in a downward spiral that will last for months and maybe years. About the only hope that's left is for either a large financial institution or a private equity shop to buy the company. The only problem with that scenario is that they have subprime woes of their own.

To be sure, the ubiquitous commercials from E*Trade and Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) may start to disappear from CNBC and other cable networks in the coming months because the companies will no longer be able to afford them.

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Last updated: September 05, 2008: 11:19 PM

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