Global oil demand expected to fall and oil prices drop

Bloomberg reports this morning that the International Energy Agency cut its global demand forecast for 2008 and oil prices took a tumble for a second day. Oil reached its highest intraday price since 1983 of $98.62 on Nov. 7. In early trading this morning, the price on crude oil contracts for delivery in December dropped to $93.80 as of 9:37 AM London time. In after hours trading, the crude oil price dropped to $93.32.

U.S. gasoline demand has leveled off at around 9.4 million barrels a day for the past three months, according to data from the Department of Energy. The slowing U.S. economy will likely reduce growth in consumption, Anthony Nunan, assistant general manager for risk management at Mitsubushi Corp. told Bloomberg. He said, "That's going to be the sign, if we see a faltering in U.S. demand. Most of the damage from the subprime has been in the financial institutions but we'll start to see a toll on the average citizen and once we see that it will spill over into consumer spending." The U.S. Energy Department will release its weekly report in Washington tomorrow.

OPEC's summit on Nov. 17 and 18 will focus on the security of oil supply, and no decision is expected on output. Production will be discussed at a Dec. 5 ministerial-level meeting in Abu Dhabi, the United Arab Emirates. David Moore, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, told Bloomberg, "It looks as if OPEC will at least consider increasing oil production at the December OPEC conference. That's pulling oil prices lower."

Let's hope he's right and we never see a $100 per barrel price level.

Lita Epstein has written more than 20 books including the "Complete Idiot's Guide to the Politics of Oil."