Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) announced stronger-than-expected earnings and hinted that the upcoming holiday shopping season will be strong. This is just another sign that the US economy is strong enough to withstand the subprime mess, rising commodity prices, and the general negativity portrayed by the mainstream media.
Haven't we been warned that consumer spending is going to tank, because of the effect of the subprime meltdown, and rising fuel prices will keep shoppers at home. Well Wal-Mart, which derives so much revenue from the very shoppers that are supposed to be staying at home due to rising fuel prices, said that they expect consumer spending to be higher than expected.
As I posted yesterday, the economy grew 3.9% last quarter and job creation continues to be strong. Imagine what the US economy is going to look like in another 6 months when the subprime shakeout will have little effect on economic growth. All the naysayers who think the economy is heading into a recession, aren't looking at the big picture. Growth is fine and will pick up in '08.
As soon as investors regain some perspective, and finish their tax-loss selling (which is a big contributor to the recent sell-off), I would expect a very strong stock market rebound, to last well into Q1 '08.
Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. He holds no position in any stock mentioned as of 11/13/07.