Long-term trends look good for Duke Energy

If you're looking for a balanced, longer-term utilities play, consider Duke Energy Corporation (NYSE: DUK). Duke is that rare type of utility that offers investors an ample amount of safety, an adequate dividend, and the potential for a decent capital gain upside via growth.

In general, analysts expect DUK to register adequate revenue results in 2007-2008 following the integration of Cinergy, acquired in 2006. Duke has exited several higher-risk businesses, and what's left is impressive: 3.9 million utilities customers in the South and Midwest, 8,700 MW of unregulated generating capacity in the U.S., and 4,200 MW of generating capacity in Latin America. Further, given current population, household formation, and economic projections in the South U.S., the long-term trends look good for a considerable portion of Duke's operations.

Other positives: Look for Duke to better-utilize its Midwest gas-fired plants, and maintain cost-control discipline, in the years ahead. Further, DUK's 4.6% dividend and a reasonable p/e of 15 adds to the favorable mix. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for DUK are: $1.23 to $1.26.

The downside? Duke's revenue could be hurt if a generally-favorable regulatory stance in its regions changes; an unusually cool summer could also keep revenue below analysts expectations. Don't look for a major upside revenue surprise with Duke, but everything else, from a utilities investment standpoint, lines up.

The First Call mean rating for DUK is: Hold. [18 firms.] Mean 2007 target: $19.90. [high: $23, low: $16.]

Stock Analysis: Duke Energy is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Consider buying Duke's shares if your portfolio does not contain a utilities stock. Investors with an investment horizon longer than 1 year should be rewarded from DUK's shares. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to purchase this stock: $12.