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'Super-SIV' may not be so super

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With the three largest U.S. banks reaching agreement on a new $80 billion fund aimed at reviving the market for short-term debt, criticism appears to be mounting that the new fund itself may be flawed or may create more problems than it solves.

Citigroup (NYSE: C), the Bank of America (NYSE: BAC). and JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), the three largest U.S. banks, have reached an agreement on the structure of an $80 billion fund to help revive the market for short-term debt, a person familiar with the talks said, Bloomberg News reported.

The banks want to establish the fund, called the "Super SIV" or master liquidity enhancement conduit ("M-LEC"), as a way to obtain short-term credit to finance high risk / high-yield investments in subprime mortgage loans. The fund would buy some of the $320 billion in assets held in structured investment vehicles, or SIVs. SIVs typically borrowed money to invest in longer-term investments, like subprime mortgages.


Subprime debt at the core


However, investors fled subprime mortgage investments and assets backed by subprime mortgages after subprime mortgage defaults rose substantially this year: those defaults were a major factor in the August 2007 liquidity crunch and equity market sell-off. The defaults, and concern about possible future subprime defaults, have driven investors from all but the safest debt forms. Deutsche Bank AG analysts Tuesday said that losses related to subprime mortgages may reach $400 billion globally, Agence France-Presse reported.

The banks hope to have the Super SIV in place by the end of 2007, but the plan is drawing criticism from investment circles. Josh Rosner, managing director of Graham, Fisher & Co, said the Super SIV is flawed, according to a report from Bloomberg News.

"The whole thing is flawed,'' said Rosner, whose New York-based firm analyzes structured finance and real estate investments. "As opposed to recognizing losses, we're trying to roll those losses into the future, regardless of the sanity or safety and soundness of doing that.''

Greenspan also expresses concern

Further, about a month ago former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the Super SIV fund could have serious repercussions, according to an interview with the Emerging Market newspaper.

In the article, Greenspan said it wasn't clear to him "that the benefits of that kind of fund (Super SIV) outweigh the risks."

Economic Analysis: It's difficult to judge the appropriateness and efficacy of the proposed Super-SIV until full plan details emerge, but the initial outline has raised legitimate questions. Economists and analysts don't know if the plan will fail to mark-to-market the reduced value of various subprime debt and/or roll problematic (or zero-value) debt into new debt. Hence, it's best to await further review by former Fed Chair Greenspan, and by the U.S. Federal Reserve, before forming a conclusion regarding the proposed Super-SIV.

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 09:38 AM

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