To help investors separate the cream from the crap, I've developed my own formula for determining how promotional a company's management is, relative to its fundamental strength. Ladies and gentlemen, I present the E/PR ratio. The formula for calculating it is simple: E/PR= Earnings per year/Press Releases per year.
Let's look at a couple examples. First, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A), Warren Buffett's conglomerate. In 2006, the company put out 16 press releases and earned about $11 billion. So the E/PR ratio is 687.5 million. For every PR the company put out, it earned $687.5 million. The press releases generally concerned major acquisitions, Buffett's record-breaking pledge to the Gates Foundation, and quarterly reports. That sounds like a business that's focused on creating value for shareholders through operational success -- and letting the story tell itself. So far it's worked out well for shareholders, as investors who put just a few thousand dollars with Mr. Buffett at the beginning of his career are worth millions.
Let's compare this to another paragon of good stewardship: Overstock.com (NASDAQ: OSTK). In 2006, Overstock put out 39 press releases, 14 of which reported financials, with the rest devoted to the usual important milestones in the creation of shareholder value: celebrating the receipt of an SEC subpoena, complaining about the high short interest, and the company's legal wrangling with hedge funds it believes are part of a conspiracy to undermine it.
In 2006, Overstock lost $102 million. In 2007, the company has upped the ante -- press releases defending its CEO's comments about burning children and updates on its lawsuit against prime brokers.
What's Overstock's E/PR ratio? Well we can't really calculate it because the company doesn't have any earnings -- never has and, some say, never will. But, on average, the company lost about $2.6 million for every press release it put out last year. Of course, the problem with calculating it this way is that issuing more press releases will reduce the per press release loss. When dealing with companies that aren't profitable, the R/PR ratio -- revenue per press release -- can be more useful.
Of course, I picked two companies that are at opposite extremes: the strong silent type and a cash-burning machine whose major product is the press release.
But on average, I suspect that companies that are less PR-happy tend to perform better. Running a business is a lot of work -- so is running a stock promotion. Running both is too much for most management teams and, for long-term success, investors should choose companies focused on business -- unless you're selling short, in which case a company running a PR mill can be a great red flag for further investigation.










