Starbucks (SBUX) earnings match expectations, but hold a surprise for next year

Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) hit the earnings confessional after the close, reporting fourth-quarter results of $158.5 million, or 21 cents per share, a 35% jump from year-ago results. As same-store sales rose 4%, revenue hit $2.44 billion, up 22% from last year's $2 billion take. Both headline numbers were on par with analysts' expectations. As I pointed out this morning, recent history indicated that SBUX had decent odds of coming in even with the Street's consensus view.

What the Street wasn't expecting, however, was the company's lowered guidance for the upcoming fiscal year, citing rising commodity costs, increased competitive pressures, and softer consumer spending. For its year that wraps up in September, SBUX expects to earn between $1.02 and $1.05 per share, representing year-over-year growth of 17% to 21% from fiscal 2007. SBUX had previously targeted earnings growth of 20% to 22%. Revenue is expected to rise 17% to 18%. Same-store sales are now expected to rise between 3% and 5%, narrowing an earlier range of 3% to 7%.

The company is also reducing its expansion goals, lowering the number of new-store openings planned to 2,500 from 2,600.

In after-hours trading, the shares have plunged nearly 9%. If this activity follows through into the regular session tomorrow, SBUX will be poised to hit a new 52-week low. Remember that potential technical support in the form of the 80-month moving average resides about 10% below the stock's closing levels.

Beth Gaston Moon is an analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.