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Cisco (CSCO): Toby Smith says 'Get on board'

"Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) it's a true 'Dominator' company," says Toby Smith. "The company's major strategic advantage is its size and its marketing power to influence customers' decision-making."

"This is a good time to get on board, he says in his ChangeWave Investing, a newsletter that seeks to identify the leading company involved in enduring, long-term market trends.

He continues, "The company's primary value proposition is not quality or price, but being the single source for its customers' networking technology needs. Purchasers of Cisco's equipment won't lose any sleep over their decision to buy from them. The thinking is if it ain't broke, don't fix it.

"Our ChangeWave Alliance findings tell us that Cisco is gaining market share in all of its main product areas, and the company confirmed that in its Q3 report.

"Investor expectations were high prior to Cisco's quarterly report. So despite overall solid quarterly results and long-term outlook, CEO Chambers' remarks about problems among its U.S. enterprise business -- especially financials and autos -- quickly sparked a sell-off in its shares.

"You might be surprised to learn that U.S. enterprise business represents only 13% of Cisco's revenues and that most of its biggest growth is occurring in the developing countries and Europe, where orders and contracts with phone carriers bolstered sales.

Smith explains, "Emerging markets represent 10% of Cisco's annual revenue, up from 7.3% two years ago. That may increase to 20% in a few years. Notably, this doesn't even include China and India, which the company considers to be at a different stage. Including Chindia, developing-market sales would account for as much as 40% of Cisco's revenue!

"Recently, Cisco said it plans to double its investment in China to $16 billion over the next five years. The company had already committed $8.5 billion to its investments in China and is actively looking to joint venture with domestic partners.

"Unlike the United States, where competition is constantly biting at Cisco's heels -- and sometimes higher -- the company enjoys an even more dominant position in the developing country markets like China. No other competitor can offer the full lineup of product lines or breadth of technologies.

"While some of Cisco's established segments are in competitive battles and in need of more innovative, breakthrough thinking (i.e. switches and routers), the company is experiencing faster growth in some of the new technologies.

"For example, revenue from Cisco's Advanced Technologies unit, which houses businesses such as videoconferencing and TV set-top boxes, rose 27% from the previous year to $2.4 billion.

"We recommended Cisco as a long-term investment that will greatly benefit from the next phase of the Internet's build-out, driven by video and Web 2.0 technologies, as well as soaring demand from developing countries led by China and India. With the recent selloff, it's a good time to get on board."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com website features the latest investment commentary and favorite stock picks of the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

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Last updated: July 09, 2008: 07:32 AM

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