Cramer on BloggingStocks: Belly-up builder would tip the scales


Jim Cramer on BloggingStocksTheStreet.com's Jim Cramer explains what could force the Fed to cut rates again.

The housing index just can't rally for a minute. The thing's amazing. The stress of the system is so clearly manifested by this that I have to wonder if the Fed wants this index lower.

The fact that the Fed's speakers never mention things like this index and the homebuilders makes me wonder if this group is actually what the Fed wants to put out of business. I wonder if the Fed thinks that Pulte (NYSE: PHM) (Cramer's Take) and Horton (NYSE: DHI) (Cramer's Take) and Lennar (NYSE: LEN) (Cramer's Take) and Standard Pacific (NYSE: SPF) (Cramer's Take) and Centex (NYSE: CTX) (Cramer's Take) need to go bankrupt before the Fed can ease any more.

Many of these firms lent money recklessly. Are the Fed heads thinking these companies need to pay like the New Centurys and the NovaStars (NYSE: NFI) (Cramer's Take) did? (Are the feds, by the way, thinking that this GMAC company has to go because that was a huge provider of crummy mortgages?)



Either way, they, like Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take), may be overlooked by Bill Poole, but the market itself looks at the housing index (^HGX), layers on Fannie Mae and puts in the J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP) (Cramer's Take), Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) (Cramer's Take) and Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) (Cramer's Take) numbers and thinks the Fed is just totally wrong about holding off. Toss in the incredible action from the mortgage insurers, which are giving back much of those squeeze gains coming from bogus buyout rumors, and you really have to worry.

You know me. I think the last place you will find out what the Fed is going to do is from the Fed. How quickly we forget that Bill Poole was telling you the day before the half-point cut that there wasn't going to be a cut without a cataclysm.

These guys just don't know what's about to happen and they want to be reactive. So I would not rule out immediate ease on a major financial belly-up, but not before a homebuilder bankruptcy that tips the scales.

Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this post.

Please note that due to factors including low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float, we consider NovaStar to be a small-cap stock. You should be aware that such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information, and that postings such as this one can have an effect on their stock prices.

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Last updated: February 13, 2012: 01:38 PM

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